Movies · resolved market
Will Renate Reinsve be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa445606ed64dc49f871b84977a8914266c172f787c4265112292970c238fd74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252b…b46cbacked No | 16c | 4,284$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.01 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 7c | 2,794$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.27 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 2c | 2,478$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 10c | 2,187$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.69 | 486 | 36%175 W · 311 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 9c | 2,048$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.95 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 10c | 1,789$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.45 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed No | 10c | 1,406$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.8 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 9c | 1,017$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.53 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed No | 9c | 869$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed No | 11c | 852.53$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed No | 8c | 815$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 9c | 765$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09be…76d5backed No | 10c | 746$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed No | 10c | 718$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde23…62e9backed No | 11c | 632$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed No | 25c | 576$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.68 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 10c | 515$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 11c | 473.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 14c | 473.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…6130backed No | 14c | 457$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed No | 10c | 402$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed No | 9c | 398$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed No | 11c | 372$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed No | 9c | 357$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 335.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 1,415 | 8%113 W · 1,302 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…5709backed No | 11c | 307$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…2d2cbacked No | 26c | 300$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…907bbacked No | 9c | 291$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed No | 10c | 273$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…a54dbacked No | 9c | 268$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -5.3wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 22c | 263$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes | 78c | 246$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed Yes | 66c | 226.1$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.87 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb890…a592backed No | 13c | 224$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked No | 6c | 222$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 16c | 205.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 235 | 30.6%72 W · 163 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 11c | 204.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f1d9backed No | 9c | 199$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed Yes | 75c | 193$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed Yes | 73c | 181.02$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 79c | 173.5$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 12c | 173$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 509 | 33.2%169 W · 340 L | -31.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 80c | 168$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 77c | 159$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked No | 11c | 158$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 8c | 150.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed No | 34c | 149$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 12c | 148.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked No | 24c | 148$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked No | 25c | 139$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed No | 9c | 136.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…9ed0backed No | 12c | 129.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed No | 25c | 128$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a7a9backed No | 11c | 124$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24f8…351ebacked No | 13c | 123$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 12c | 114$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed No | 13c | 111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 11c | 111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed No | 21c | 109$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed No | 11c | 104$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,223 | 17.8%218 W · 1,005 L | -125.3wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked Yes | 79c | 85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes | 76c | 83$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…6232backed No | 13c | 79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 75c | 76.9$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No | 25c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked No | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Renate Reinsve be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Cynthia Erivo be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Eva Victor be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jennifer Lawrence be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jessica Lange be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jessie Buckley be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Jodie Comer be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Julia Roberts be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will June Squibb be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Kate Hudson be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Lucy Liu be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Sydney Sweeney be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.