Movies · resolved market
Will Jennifer Lawrence be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c0a52a8577dfe7816b87493a63e3576d985eac21124fa3888b8841e5500daeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 6c | 1,458$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d2…2117backed Yes | 8c | 999.61$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 11c | 855$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…6533backed Yes | 11c | 730$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cb…ac3dbacked Yes | 15c | 683.47$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.31 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes | 11c | 619$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a7a9backed Yes | 11c | 543$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…2cf4backed Yes | 11c | 461$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…4018backed Yes | 12c | 438$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…1cedbacked Yes | 19c | 430$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed Yes | 11c | 387$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 15c | 381$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 11c | 373$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 14c | 305$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x630f…34cebacked Yes | 4c | 304.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +119.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed Yes | 14c | 282$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 5c | 259$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc46b…a180backed Yes | 4c | 243.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed Yes | 15c | 222$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 14c | 218$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 14c | 215.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 7c | 196.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed Yes | 14c | 168$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…84bebacked Yes | 16c | 167$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked Yes | 14c | 163$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…8754backed Yes | 8c | 158.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe841…a62ebacked Yes | 19c | 132.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 120.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 15c | 107$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 105.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 14c | 97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes | 11c | 94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 89.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea45…e748backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 78.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jennifer Lawrence be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Cynthia Erivo be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Eva Victor be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jessica Lange be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jessie Buckley be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Jodie Comer be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Julia Roberts be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will June Squibb be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Kate Hudson be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Lucy Liu be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Renate Reinsve be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Sydney Sweeney be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.