TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6e36…2479

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
172
Categories scored
29
Categories below 50
20

Best Category: IPO, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category IPO at 59 out of 100; worst Weather at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT3234.4%11 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.36
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$567Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$567
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$181.89
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$34.65
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$291.09
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$72.42
Will "Sinners" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$214.32
Will Wally Baram win Best Breakthrough Performance (TV) at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+63.9%+$62.4
Will Jo I-geon make a final pair in Single's Inferno: Season 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$41.86
Will Jennifer Lawrence be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$57.15
Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+510.5%+$329.05
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$83.6
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$249Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$96.88
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$26.62
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$536Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$178.75
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$43.66
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$193.86
Will Little Amélie or the Character of Rain be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$59.34
Will Zootopia 2 be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$27.56
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$98.01
Will Wicked: For Good be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+89.7%+$49.18
Will Sinners win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$124.93
Will Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) win Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+45.3%+$94.22
Will The Pitt win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$61.29
Will Rhea Seehorn (Pluribus) win Best Actress – Television Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$611Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+25%+$152.8
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$364Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$108.79
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.56
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,413Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+28.7%+$405.67
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.5
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+300%+$274.5
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$379.62
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+37%+$10.53
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$892Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$892.26
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$489.6
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.64
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.96
Will the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$28.8
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$302Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+140.4%+$424.57
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$173.84
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.9
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win more than 62.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$66.5
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$306.28
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$172.38
Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$322Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$321.84
Will the Sacramento Kings win more than 32.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$33.3
Will the San Antonio Spurs win more than 44.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$35.49
Will the Utah Jazz win more than 18.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$51.3
Will Lauri Markkanen be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$63.07
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$522Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+40.8%+$213.15
All 24 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$74.56
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$112.4
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $3.00 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$202.4
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.48
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$178.73
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$369Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$256.25
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$28.5
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.92
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.12
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$239.2
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+426.3%+$501.39
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$38.54
Google Gemini Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$55.38
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$169.68
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$114.45
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,240Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,240.12
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+96.1%+$92.61
All 17 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-42.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.44
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.94
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$144.3
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$243.6
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+284.6%+$611.98
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$342Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+177.8%+$607.36
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$138.2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$187.98
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+73.7%+$234.62
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$652Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$652.4
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$49.2
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$536Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$535.68
Will Israel strike Iraq by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$31
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$135.24
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$35.52
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$153.68
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$17.7
All 17 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1520%3 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-68.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Weather — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.76
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$540.39
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.72
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.08
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$70.2
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+25%+$31.4
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$17.76
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$558Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$557.83
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$384Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$383.52
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+61.6%+$149.73
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$125.8
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$51.5
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$12.1
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$65.28
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+81.8%+$122.85
All 15 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$69.68
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+28.2%+$63.8
Will PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$93.53
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$63.92
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$71.98
Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$107.05
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+68.1%+$127.98
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 10% and 15% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+284.6%+$154.66
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$31.9
All 9 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-48.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+268.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+40.8%+$82.07
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+33.3%+$36
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon and DOGE cut 100-150k employees in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+29.9%+$36.11
Trump-Epstein Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.95
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+426.3%+$143.37
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$809Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$912.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+100%+$110
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Siena Saints vs. Rider Broncs: O/U 135.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+26.3%+$55.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$101.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$75.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$210.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$110.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Macarthur FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$226.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alan Keating be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$16.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$481Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$480.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.