AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc022c9e423c9a2712f46e4186f72a551fa3a52369b23edb7345f652975d1989
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 14c | 2,842$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.59 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 2,672$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 55c | 1,647$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.15 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed No | 13c | 1,285$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.05 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…d9c1backed Yes | 53c | 1,151$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 53c | 1,113$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.63 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 45c | 1,101$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.45 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes | 55c | 1,073$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.85 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 71c | 998$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed No | 11c | 968$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 15c | 935.81$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.86 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…70a2backed Yes | 39c | 919$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed No | 13c | 908$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed No | 17c | 904$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…0532backed No | 15c | 898$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8f…1cb8backed No | 22c | 876.75$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.07 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 17c | 772$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.59 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…4e8fbacked Yes | 76c | 686$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 15c | 653$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…b072backed No | 61c | 626$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed Yes | 76c | 602$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.48 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed Yes | 49c | 599$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad9…7bf6backed No | 12c | 594.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed No | 13c | 589$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed Yes | 54c | 575$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed No | 46c | 575$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed No | 12c | 569$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…3929backed No | 15c | 568$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed No | 12c | 540$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7c…5a5fbacked No | 12c | 537$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.52per pick | 32cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes | 36c | 508$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234a…cbffbacked No | 64c | 508$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed No | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…6284backed No | 17c | 494$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed No | 17c | 485$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 55c | 485$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.25 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed No | 45c | 485$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…4b87backed Yes | 56c | 480$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked No | 44c | 480$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked No | 24c | 467$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.08 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 47c | 466$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.02 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…a794backed Yes | 40c | 461$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked No | 46c | 460$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +96%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked Yes | 55c | 449$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.05 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed No | 24c | 441$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c1…6512backed No | 45c | 441$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed No | 13c | 440$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 45c | 421$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.45 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed No | 24c | 419$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed No | 51c | 413$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.63 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd008…e9dbbacked Yes | 76c | 407$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed No | 43c | 406$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.58 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed Yes | 57c | 406$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.58 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked No | 60c | 391$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed No | 15c | 374$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +5.6wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…3055backed Yes | 76c | 371.86$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 15c | 370.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…77cdbacked No | 43c | 361$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.23 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked No | 45c | 357$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.65 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked Yes | 50c | 351$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…63b6backed No | 17c | 346$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked No | 64c | 343$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.52 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 36c | 343$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked Yes | 38c | 336$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed No | 62c | 336$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…2f4ebacked No | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed No | 61c | 293$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.73 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 45c | 284$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 45c | 279$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.55 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 10c | 271.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 14c | 270.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…aa1abacked No | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed No | 12c | 193$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…3d05backed No | 12c | 189$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked No | 47c | 185$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 179.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 20c | 176.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…bd44backed No | 12c | 169.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70e7…4a70backed Yes | 55c | 160$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed No | 24c | 157$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 53c | 155.75$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c52…f01fbacked No | 17c | 154.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7410…ad32backed No | 62c | 154$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed No | 15c | 151$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc300…cbc5backed Yes | 76c | 144.06$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc773…a093backed No | 43c | 142$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…3987backed No | 43c | 141$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66e…cc43backed No | 43c | 138$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad11…9db2backed No | 43c | 133$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c6…898dbacked No | 43c | 133$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa319…6de0backed No | 43c | 130$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e6…6185backed No | 43c | 128$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked No | 15c | 128$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…3a6ebacked No | 43c | 128$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked No | 16c | 127.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7f…ac7fbacked Yes | 79c | 126.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…aa56backed No | 31c | 125$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed Yes | 69c | 125$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?this page
- Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.