TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe17a…c6fb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
145
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Stocks, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Stocks at 53 out of 100; worst Weather at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$28.52
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$702Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+25.2%+$176.95
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.64
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$366Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$465.36
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.95
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$515Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$514.65
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$282
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.50 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.59
Will Jensen Huang say "Alpamayo" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$277Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$367.65
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$365.73
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.40 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+156.4%+$231.19
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$13.78
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$274Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$91.25
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25.83
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$293.36
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.16
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+75.4%+$168.56
Will diVine launch iOS app by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$230.58
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+35.1%+$11.96
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$30.56
All 20 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2030%6 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid+14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$161.28
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$261.17
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.48
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.84
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$749Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$748.66
Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$248.31
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+354.5%+$370.5
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$119.04
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$328Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$327.75
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$75.6
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+212.5%+$225.76
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$150.92
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$233.12
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+156.4%+$190.32
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+56.3%+$175.68
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$283.04
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$116.34
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$50.24
20+ trapped Hamas fighters allowed to leave in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.91
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$30.4
All 20 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT1838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.32
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$291Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$178.22
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.75
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$114.56
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.84
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.76
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.57
Will Cason Wallace lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+25.9%+$58.78
Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.45
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$319Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$619.74
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+372.2%+$161.59
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.68
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.89
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$527Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$527.04
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$283Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+37%+$104.49
Will the Utah Jazz win more than 18.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$26.55
Cam Spencer: Assists Over 8.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$116.22
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$559Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+29.5%+$165.07
All 18 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT1822.2%4 W · 14 L-4.3wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-59.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Weather — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be at least 1775 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$485Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$484.98
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.12
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$365.4
Will February 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$358.16
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$648Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$647.51
Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+75.4%+$197.8
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$250.9
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$717Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$717.22
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$64.35
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$249.39
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$94.77
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$496Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$496.28
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+122.2%+$78.1
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$164.8
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$13.76
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+81.8%+$96.75
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$23.7
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+49.3%+$62.37
All 18 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$134.51
No one announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$563.72
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.88
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$205.14
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$319Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+78.6%+$250.8
Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+92.3%+$34.08
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$385Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$385.32
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$51.33
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+40.8%+$10.45
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+257.1%+$131.04
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$17.95
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$64.86
Will Frankenstein be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$133.01
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+78.6%+$65.56
Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+163.5%+$45.3
Will The Pitt win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$196.3
Will Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$180.07
All 17 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-47.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Livable Rotterdam (LR) win the most seats in Rotterdam’s 2026 municipal election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+100%+$18
Will PLC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.05
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$25.92
Will PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$499Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$499.38
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win less than 10% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$56.16
Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 82% and 84%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+66.7%+$24.4
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$105.59
All 7 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-73.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-67.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-49.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+138.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+49.3%+$119.79
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$18.85
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 26, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NCAA Tournament: Double-digit seed to make Quarterfinals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+37%+$118.53
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Southern Jaguarsbacked Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.82
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+100%+$17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Paris Basketballbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$483Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$445.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+72.4%+$15.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Ipswich Town FC (-1.5)backed Ipswich Town FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$146.3
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.