TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,376,782
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,663,553

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,376,782 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,408 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5858…fbbfbacked No26c100,004$25,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,616.023243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf74b…95cbbacked No5c98,501$4,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,620.096314.3%9 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes79c75,997$59,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,338.322740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-22.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2f4a…7c9fbacked No19c57,071$10,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,952.512339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-29%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No4c43,195$1,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,861.642236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c43,113$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.511712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x89ac…8e15backed No1c42,672$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.641631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf67f…31cfbacked No36c35,834$13,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,051.533056.7%17 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked No12c33,418$3,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,921.59156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-86.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cb1…50ffbacked No16c33,280$5,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,355.991926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-49.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61e2…7847backed No0c30,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed No12c27,274$3,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,278.52429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No13c25,590$3,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,374.9635712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked No32c25,000$7,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,933.417545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9015…2ed7backed Yes69c21,972$15,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,826.181040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2048…f572backed No22c21,532$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,700.289046.7%42 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed No6c20,413$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.728532.9%28 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed No16c20,000$3,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,141.5412528%35 W · 90 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe78f…727dbacked Yes79c19,422$15,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,140.96560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0805…31c0backed No21c19,329$4,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,004.611127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-46%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ac1…0389backed Yes79c19,207$15,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,058.71861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcc6…8283backed No8c18,842$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600.21650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82cf…0998backed No18c18,770$3,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,379.322924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd61b…0385backed No4c17,650$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.971323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-62.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef18…158bbacked Yes55c16,492$9,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,421.211428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed No4c16,162$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.0313422.4%30 W · 104 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+175.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc2ed…ffc2backed No22c15,596$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,500728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked No6c15,570$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.373525.7%9 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-36%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…a3d6backed Yes76c14,831$11,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,509.594257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ac8…a414backed No22c14,526$3,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,195.78911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-80.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e5…0e18backed Yes70c14,345$9,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,349.5742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x396f…7f78backed No4c13,530$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.592623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-58.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1319…d7dbbacked Yes72c13,182$9,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,645.22955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No10c12,781$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.832236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No25c12,490$3,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,062.9117859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4489…2452backed Yes79c12,300$9,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5497100%7 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed No8c12,155$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.849422.3%21 W · 73 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd76a…af9bbacked No43c11,623$5,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000.98850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x741b…d021backed Yes77c11,046$8,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,574.443735.1%13 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0301…0796backed No5c10,439$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ca…b467backed No6c10,289$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No28c10,275$2,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,912.8523841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4f61…011abacked Yes71c10,119$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,918.93966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+44.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked No24c10,112$2,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4054831.3%15 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-47.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked No16c10,003$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.2915539.4%61 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcd0…c5cdbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9411…63c7backed No25c10,000$2,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,474.711338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcba6…5adabacked No23c10,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.991040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6996…408dbacked Yes78c10,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.99850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe016…1d15backed No5c9,813$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.3360%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked No35c9,738$3,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,417.34847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b3…c5eabacked Yes78c9,175$7,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,004.08560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb36…7afbbacked No17c9,150$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5511717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23f4…c234backed No25c9,120$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2804938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc2…9271backed No4c8,750$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3504731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc644…23f3backed No9c8,198$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.571050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe270…10b5backed No8c8,081$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.186634.8%23 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8796…9937backed No9c8,067$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7261127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-57.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2497…e26abacked Yes75c7,990$5,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,997.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe058…d73ebacked No13c7,990$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.752548%12 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d1b…f055backed No12c7,922$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.52917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-69.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e27…9890backed No7c7,888$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.763531.4%11 W · 24 L-5.5wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-49.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x11a7…2c03backed Yes78c7,844$6,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7413256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fb0…4141backed No29c7,781$2,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,269.99825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-64.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa52f…ad0dbacked Yes69c7,678$5,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,380.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x029e…0159backed No14c7,556$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.7837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b2…de0ebacked Yes70c7,487$5,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,246.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes74c7,250$5,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,918.122123.8%5 W · 16 L-4.9wins-0.23per pick47cpaid-66.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No5c7,243$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.19747.4%46 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x869c…2483backed Yes61c7,088$4,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,770.131833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-43.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc76…7842backed No37c7,065$2,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,646.845135.3%18 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed No2c7,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.57231.9%23 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed No31c6,939$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,165.536116.4%10 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+95.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x171f…b414backed Yes72c6,717$4,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,880.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+112.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffad…6c76backed No15c6,703$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b7e…013bbacked No6c6,681$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-73.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff58…78f4backed Yes80c6,300$5,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa15…3963backed No18c6,089$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.341216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-61.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked No15c6,036$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.213131.3%41 W · 90 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+164.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x78de…b08bbacked No33c6,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9501735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+96.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8074…5c76backed No23c6,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3501050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fd0…047fbacked No16c5,946$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.96728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa43f…fc07backed No7c5,931$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.185712.3%7 W · 50 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf301…4ce1backed No9c5,875$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.462133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3739…307fbacked No7c5,850$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.242532%8 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdef0…3d06backed No5c5,841$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.692420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-67.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b48…9e7abacked Yes73c5,786$4,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,568.332835.7%10 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+83.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf685…c504backed No20c5,670$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,13410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No20c5,652$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.345416.7%9 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-51.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a09…af0fbacked No10c5,645$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.051921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-46.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…256abacked No18c5,600$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0165614.3%8 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6606…1338backed No8c5,568$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.062454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe25a…7f82backed Yes78c5,511$4,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.44742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-38.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e85…1f81backed No5c5,412$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.873946.2%18 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7f2…e36dbacked No13c5,200$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.61154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+57.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd71f…31bdbacked No21c5,200$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0921520%3 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-58.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb789…7823backed No28c5,126$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,435.220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd444…67d6backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-76.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1bc…f954backed Yes53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,350933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed No26c5,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.993036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.