Token Launches · resolved market
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20530a7d6f8b193c1e0abfe0d42c81c9708ed4dd25f0019317dbe0721a3ccf7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,376,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,663,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,376,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,408 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5858…fbbfbacked No | 26c | 100,004$25,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,616.02 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked No | 5c | 98,501$4,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,620.09 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes | 79c | 75,997$59,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,338.32 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4a…7c9fbacked No | 19c | 57,071$10,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,952.51 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 4c | 43,195$1,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,861.64 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 43,113$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.51 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ac…8e15backed No | 1c | 42,672$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.64 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf67f…31cfbacked No | 36c | 35,834$13,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,051.53 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 12c | 33,418$3,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,921.59 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…50ffbacked No | 16c | 33,280$5,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,355.99 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e2…7847backed No | 0c | 30,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed No | 12c | 27,274$3,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,278.5 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 25,590$3,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,374.96 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 32c | 25,000$7,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,933.41 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9015…2ed7backed Yes | 69c | 21,972$15,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,826.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed No | 22c | 21,532$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700.28 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 6c | 20,413$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.72 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 16c | 20,000$3,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,141.54 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe78f…727dbacked Yes | 79c | 19,422$15,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,140.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0805…31c0backed No | 21c | 19,329$4,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,004.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac1…0389backed Yes | 79c | 19,207$15,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,058.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc6…8283backed No | 8c | 18,842$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed No | 18c | 18,770$3,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,379.32 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd61b…0385backed No | 4c | 17,650$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.97 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…158bbacked Yes | 55c | 16,492$9,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,421.21 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 4c | 16,162$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.03 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…ffc2backed No | 22c | 15,596$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 6c | 15,570$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.37 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…a3d6backed Yes | 76c | 14,831$11,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,509.59 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac8…a414backed No | 22c | 14,526$3,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,195.78 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…0e18backed Yes | 70c | 14,345$9,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,349.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed No | 4c | 13,530$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.59 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1319…d7dbbacked Yes | 72c | 13,182$9,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,645.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 10c | 12,781$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.83 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 25c | 12,490$3,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,062.91 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4489…2452backed Yes | 79c | 12,300$9,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 8c | 12,155$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.84 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd76a…af9bbacked No | 43c | 11,623$5,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741b…d021backed Yes | 77c | 11,046$8,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,574.44 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…0796backed No | 5c | 10,439$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…b467backed No | 6c | 10,289$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 28c | 10,275$2,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,912.85 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f61…011abacked Yes | 71c | 10,119$7,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,918.93 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked No | 24c | 10,112$2,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,405 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 16c | 10,003$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.29 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…c5cdbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9411…63c7backed No | 25c | 10,000$2,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,474.71 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…5adabacked No | 23c | 10,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…408dbacked Yes | 78c | 10,000$7,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,199.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…1d15backed No | 5c | 9,813$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked No | 35c | 9,738$3,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,417.3 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b3…c5eabacked Yes | 78c | 9,175$7,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,004.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb36…7afbbacked No | 17c | 9,150$1,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23f4…c234backed No | 25c | 9,120$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc2…9271backed No | 4c | 8,750$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc644…23f3backed No | 9c | 8,198$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…10b5backed No | 8c | 8,081$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.18 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…9937backed No | 9c | 8,067$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2497…e26abacked Yes | 75c | 7,990$5,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,997.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…d73ebacked No | 13c | 7,990$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.75 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…f055backed No | 12c | 7,922$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.5 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…9890backed No | 7c | 7,888$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.76 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed Yes | 78c | 7,844$6,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb0…4141backed No | 29c | 7,781$2,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,269.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…ad0dbacked Yes | 69c | 7,678$5,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,380.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x029e…0159backed No | 14c | 7,556$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b2…de0ebacked Yes | 70c | 7,487$5,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,246.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes | 74c | 7,250$5,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,918.12 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 5c | 7,243$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.1 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x869c…2483backed Yes | 61c | 7,088$4,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,770.13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed No | 37c | 7,065$2,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,646.84 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…4191backed No | 2c | 7,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed No | 31c | 6,939$2,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,165.53 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x171f…b414backed Yes | 72c | 6,717$4,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffad…6c76backed No | 15c | 6,703$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7e…013bbacked No | 6c | 6,681$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff58…78f4backed Yes | 80c | 6,300$5,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…3963backed No | 18c | 6,089$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.34 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 15c | 6,036$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.2 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78de…b08bbacked No | 33c | 6,000$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8074…5c76backed No | 23c | 6,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd0…047fbacked No | 16c | 5,946$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed No | 7c | 5,931$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.18 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…4ce1backed No | 9c | 5,875$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.46 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked No | 7c | 5,850$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.24 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…3d06backed No | 5c | 5,841$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.69 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b48…9e7abacked Yes | 73c | 5,786$4,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.33 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…c504backed No | 20c | 5,670$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 20c | 5,652$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.34 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…af0fbacked No | 10c | 5,645$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.05 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…256abacked No | 18c | 5,600$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…1338backed No | 8c | 5,568$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.06 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…7f82backed Yes | 78c | 5,511$4,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e85…1f81backed No | 5c | 5,412$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.87 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f2…e36dbacked No | 13c | 5,200$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd71f…31bdbacked No | 21c | 5,200$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb789…7823backed No | 28c | 5,126$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd444…67d6backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bc…f954backed Yes | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed No | 26c | 5,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.99 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $140M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $15M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $160M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $180M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $200M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.