TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over $15M committed to the Ranger public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,298,359
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,583,445

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,298,359 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc559…e384backed No3c98,265$2,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,49530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdff5…0bcebacked No1c80,508$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa15…3963backed No2c57,997$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.491216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-61.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a09…af0fbacked No2c35,778$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.591921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-46.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f92…36d7backed No0c28,369$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed No0c24,000$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-33.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c23,287$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.411712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9236…8ccdbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1313…85d8backed No4c18,558$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x776b…138dbacked No0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-78.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc05…f600backed No0c15,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d1b…f055backed No2c14,004$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2302917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-69.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29af…2473backed No2c12,563$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick16cpaid+28.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8796…9937backed No2c12,503$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.281127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-57.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x412d…c974backed No1c12,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No0c11,743$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.972377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19c5…53fcbacked No4c10,901$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.0250%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44c3…e1a4backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-82.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1153…8e32backed No0c8,500$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x420b…170ebacked No2c7,720$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x839c…dcc6backed No3c7,344$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.79130%0 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2844…5aa1backed No1c6,613$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2616…8d3cbacked No1c5,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec5…257ebacked No2c5,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-66.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No2c4,771$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.663283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3a5…d8c5backed No3c4,230$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.95812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-68.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e2…b8f5backed No1c4,068$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602920.7%6 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc95c…5e0bbacked No2c4,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc824…df08backed No1c3,518$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.731921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed No4c3,474$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.649422.3%21 W · 73 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaae2…dbdabacked No1c3,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-48.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9c…a907backed No1c3,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-65.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74c2…7b05backed No3c2,908$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd61b…0385backed No1c2,893$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.751323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-62.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5238…26adbacked No1c2,873$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.71210%0 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked No1c2,819$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.51244.2%1 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick19cpaid-89.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d61…d501backed No2c2,781$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-67%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x212b…35c9backed No3c2,750$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x010d…113fbacked No5c2,720$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-75.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf4d…1ee4backed No4c2,618$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004415.9%7 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x675c…6ef0backed No0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedfa…5be2backed No1c2,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25166.3%1 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.23per pick29cpaid-92%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x28b2…ff45backed No3c2,448$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802520%5 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No1c2,433$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.88519.8%5 W · 46 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-78.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2a4…d875backed No2c2,392$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9015…2ed7backed No4c2,358$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8035…eb6abacked No2c2,188$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1950…2cafbacked No2c2,104$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No2c2,059$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.51754%3 W · 72 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x349a…cd62backed No2c2,031$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfa4…aa7fbacked No1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No2c1,983$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.332541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec4b…62b3backed No2c1,963$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4714…0b54backed No2c1,945$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeadb…77b8backed No1c1,944$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3360%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf676…39b6backed No2c1,913$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.931216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No2c1,700$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.691343.7%5 W · 129 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeed0…350cbacked No2c1,578$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4e4…3d69backed No2c1,577$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd37…e117backed No1c1,457$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17244.2%1 W · 23 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick21cpaid-88.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa963…03e3backed No3c1,429$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd174…2925backed No2c1,400$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ad7…0971backed No1c1,335$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.43190%0 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca43…a229backed No2c1,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce92…18e7backed No2c1,328$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed No1c1,274$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb36…7afbbacked No4c1,260$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.11717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed No1c1,213$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.882010%2 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick17cpaid+470.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2e2…06fbbacked No2c1,122$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208337.3%31 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No2c1,113$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.482094.3%9 W · 200 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3c8…c1c9backed No1c1,095$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.051650%8 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked No5c1,042$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504831.3%15 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-47.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed95…114cbacked No1c1,021$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+59.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7470…c5bcbacked No1c1,006$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.821414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3295…643bbacked No2c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad63…27babacked No5c1,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed No4c999.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.419543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aae…60cfbacked No1c999.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152015%3 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb8f…d7e3backed No1c995.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.86128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-83%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a47…846fbacked No1c940.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.952420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd8…5685backed No2c931.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.97166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-78.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0920…3901backed No2c929.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.62638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa841…f4efbacked No1c929.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7747…09fdbacked No1c919.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.96633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+68.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1c6…910ebacked No3c905.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255125.5%13 W · 38 L-6.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xefc3…081fbacked No1c900$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.73636.1%13 W · 23 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick19cpaid+72.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7719…9a91backed No2c835.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3400…14eebacked No3c811.52$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.11618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e27…9890backed No3c799.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.83531.4%11 W · 24 L-5.5wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-49.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7479…a34fbacked No1c784.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6db5…497dbacked No2c775.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c31…cc37backed No2c770$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1770%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb604…75cfbacked No3c721.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3682…5065backed No2c707.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb0…3175backed No2c706$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.12616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-73.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda6f…9382backed No2c658$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3850%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefc9…a72abacked No2c638.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfaf…d002backed No2c625$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f25…7e47backed No2c593.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-30%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c9…6495backed No2c578.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1360%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.