Token Launches · resolved market
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda2a2d85b6139d830bfeb7d0e516903620ad99ee9e941c22860dedd7b17dc40c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $605,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $613,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $605,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 486 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd61b…0385backed Yes | 24c | 40,960$9,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,694.98 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 16c | 33,556$5,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,391.69 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e03…6f34backed No | 75c | 22,050$16,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,433 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed Yes | 28c | 17,929$4,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,938.64 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…171abacked Yes | 24c | 16,211$3,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,864.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 22cpaid | +265.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked No | 74c | 12,639$9,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,254.95 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…5a8dbacked No | 78c | 12,630$9,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,829.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4a…7c9fbacked Yes | 24c | 10,785$2,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,534.72 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed No | 73c | 10,000$7,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 26c | 9,152$2,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,372.06 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x869c…2483backed Yes | 27c | 9,011$2,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,405.02 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…fbbfbacked No | 79c | 8,686$6,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,805.84 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 75c | 8,385$6,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.78 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f25…21a4backed Yes | 24c | 8,294$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…e5b2backed Yes | 8c | 8,073$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.21 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes | 12c | 7,659$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.89 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…0d57backed No | 78c | 7,207$5,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,101$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1319…d7dbbacked Yes | 10c | 6,700$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…b2fabacked Yes | 21c | 6,317$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67f…31cfbacked No | 77c | 6,175$4,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.01 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf494…10a8backed Yes | 25c | 6,057$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 23c | 5,777$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.41 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…8826backed No | 75c | 5,293$3,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed No | 72c | 5,000$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked No | 80c | 5,000$3,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.78 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…d38cbacked No | 76c | 4,828$3,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.86 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7054…82b8backed Yes | 22c | 4,809$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…b1e2backed Yes | 11c | 4,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…c2acbacked No | 76c | 4,500$3,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfb…1b77backed Yes | 8c | 4,317$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.39 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5c…bb60backed Yes | 13c | 4,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed No | 73c | 3,900$2,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.99 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a7…6fa3backed No | 76c | 3,815$2,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 19c | 3,602$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.69 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb10a…ab03backed No | 74c | 3,600$2,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +9.4wins | +0.28per pick | 34cpaid | +193.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…8d3cbacked No | 77c | 3,500$2,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…1d13backed No | 75c | 3,500$2,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a2…94edbacked Yes | 19c | 3,440$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.59 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Yes | 29c | 3,422$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…400cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,378$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.51 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 3,363$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.3 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0de7…183cbacked No | 79c | 3,203$2,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed Yes | 26c | 3,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741b…d021backed Yes | 23c | 3,000$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b48…9e7abacked Yes | 21c | 3,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…c3f5backed Yes | 23c | 3,000$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…3fb2backed No | 77c | 2,906$2,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.84 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,876$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f1…b550backed Yes | 7c | 2,710$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa946…517abacked No | 76c | 2,632$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 80c | 2,545$2,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.25 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…70a8backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbec…dcbdbacked Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 80c | 2,415$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.95 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f82…d930backed Yes | 17c | 2,331$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…99e7backed Yes | 25c | 2,300$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.18 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd572…a526backed Yes | 19c | 2,284$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8c…2a49backed Yes | 18c | 2,101$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…d73ebacked No | 74c | 2,033$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.23 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf2…23e3backed Yes | 26c | 2,033$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.69 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa6…47c7backed Yes | 25c | 2,009$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…10b5backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda3d…218ebacked No | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.99 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 77c | 1,901$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.22 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 15c | 1,873$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.2 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cc…f578backed Yes | 23c | 1,776$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,630$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.98 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0da1…1915backed No | 76c | 1,533$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…28a9backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…ebc6backed Yes | 17c | 1,474$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.37 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c58…ec18backed No | 70c | 1,469$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,449$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…7a96backed Yes | 21c | 1,421$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.4 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…30c5backed Yes | 15c | 1,420$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cc…dbdfbacked No | 76c | 1,384$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…2ed5backed No | 75c | 1,384$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2b…a7f5backed Yes | 24c | 1,336$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.93 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3779…6f7ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,325$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…3ec9backed No | 78c | 1,300$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…8d52backed Yes | 23c | 1,300$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10c…d845backed No | 77c | 1,279$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.75 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…9390backed No | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e4…dc76backed Yes | 19c | 1,237$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.16 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…5f4cbacked No | 72c | 1,206$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.56 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a4…8a58backed No | 70c | 1,205$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.2 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,200$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828d…c9a5backed Yes | 29c | 1,180$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.71 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a0…802dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,168$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.84 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…0ccabacked No | 75c | 1,126$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 1,096$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 11c | 1,093$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes | 19c | 1,057$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.93 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08aa…774ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,051$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,035$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.15 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…96c0backed Yes | 31c | 1,019$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.67 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…b467backed No | 79c | 1,013$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…8f03backed No | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…da1ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $140M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $15M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $160M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $180M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $200M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.