TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd572…a526

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
51
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Champions League, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 55 out of 100; worst UFC at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT1546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+44.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$455.56
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$196.13
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$367.24
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$256
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$478.97
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.52
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.84
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.93
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$277.62
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+92.3%+$92.31
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+132.6%+$132.56
Will Chelsea FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$8.92
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will France strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$527Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$526.59
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$4,494Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$4,494.23
Iran Strike on Israel by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$33.5
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$53.16
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$99.99
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$84
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+300%+$67.8
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$483Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$483
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+32.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. 76ersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+37%+$55.48
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$110
Clippers vs. Warriorsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+85.2%+$85.19
Celtics vs. Bucksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+33.3%+$33.33
All 4 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$19.22
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Khamzat Chimaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$910Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$910
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.