Middle East · resolved market
Iran Strike on Israel by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83ed5d7b328cb98dbb070379ec7184ba9c83fc8b6516c330c921501ad5ecf1a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94ce…dd3dbacked No | 0c | 17,300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked No | 0c | 6,436$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 1c | 5,869$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 1c | 4,960$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 5c | 2,133$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.63 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd572…a526backed No | 2c | 1,844$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 4c | 1,643$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…eb16backed No | 3c | 1,548$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 52c | 1,090$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44bd…15d6backed No | 4c | 1,077$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 6c | 1,022$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…dba7backed No | 5c | 939.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked Yes | 71c | 921$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.09 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +55%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…d6f1backed No | 29c | 854$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.82 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +51%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 27c | 834$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.18 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes | 72c | 822$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.16 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 2c | 699.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…1ddabacked No | 3c | 694.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 15c | 680$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed No | 48c | 617$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.16 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes | 73c | 543$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.61 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed No | 29c | 505$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked No | 29c | 416$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.64 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked No | 48c | 318$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 53cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba19…02b8backed Yes | 75c | 303.23$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed Yes | 73c | 291$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 69c | 290$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed No | 28c | 258$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0733…cd5abacked No | 32c | 246$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -5.4wins | -0.34per pick | 52cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 66c | 222$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.58 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 68c | 211$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…43c1backed Yes | 73c | 200.76$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked No | 48c | 155$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 13c | 150.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 34c | 143.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 67c | 107.34$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked No | 25c | 98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 29c | 93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked Yes | 71c | 93$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 75c | 81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 29c | 72.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…446cbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…8056backed No | 27c | 40.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d96…aa42backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4b…a738backed No | 34c | 34.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…e389backed Yes | 70c | 33.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 67c | 32.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4742…9856backed No | 36c | 30.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe789…d66abacked Yes | 69c | 21.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…11d9backed Yes | 67c | 20.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran Strike on Israel by December 31?this page
- Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?Yes won
- Iran Strike on Israel by January 15?No won
- Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?No won
- Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.