Middle East · resolved market
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a990de325fc94ed8ec111e0f44c0f59190074d7187e1d9728bf316ce845ea79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $581,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $505,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $581,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 455 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 4c | 15,036$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.02 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…aeb9backed Yes | 17c | 13,891$2,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,424.89 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…8955backed Yes | 6c | 13,828$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8579…ed4abacked Yes | 3c | 13,365$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 67c | 12,256$8,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,029.74 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 13c | 10,807$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.46 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 13c | 7,500$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.15 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 78c | 7,371$5,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,654.9 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…af17backed Yes | 10c | 7,007$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe88…90f5backed Yes | 8c | 6,954$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.11 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5495…d542backed Yes | 15c | 6,942$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.27 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 14c | 6,773$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.43 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,500$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 16c | 6,325$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.84 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c9…bb32backed Yes | 11c | 5,489$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 5,048$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x790f…8ca5backed Yes | 30c | 4,828$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Yes | 6c | 4,679$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed No | 73c | 4,642$3,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.51 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfb…7632backed Yes | 12c | 4,313$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 4,196$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.36 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd54d…1adcbacked Yes | 47c | 4,021$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed Yes | 25c | 4,000$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x247a…e991backed Yes | 20c | 3,918$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.51 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x94f2…60a0backed Yes | 8c | 3,901$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 10c | 3,781$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.85 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…eed3backed Yes | 59c | 3,508$2,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,077.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9460…7b3cbacked Yes | 14c | 3,270$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.15 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3994…ff63backed Yes | 6c | 3,200$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b8…479cbacked Yes | 32c | 3,194$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.98 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 3,018$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.03 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 23c | 2,961$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.71 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 2,915$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.79 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 2,798$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.56 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,652$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.03 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecd…a25bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,588$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eba…e146backed Yes | 4c | 2,580$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 9c | 2,564$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.36 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…e448backed Yes | 17c | 2,390$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…7e15backed Yes | 31c | 2,328$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 2,226$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.46 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 73c | 2,200$1,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.27 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x990f…7c08backed Yes | 15c | 2,110$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 2,100$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 2,086$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.41 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3033…a943backed Yes | 5c | 2,080$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a67…9129backed Yes | 7c | 2,075$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 2,068$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.15 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 7c | 2,066$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.21 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…3fc6backed No | 67c | 2,034$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234d…39f2backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 50c | 2,000$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.6 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,971$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.18 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d27…94f0backed Yes | 15c | 1,970$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 13c | 1,928$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.91 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4751…e334backed Yes | 4c | 1,891$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…a87cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,751$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 8c | 1,735$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.34 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d6…63a7backed Yes | 1c | 1,581$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…b944backed Yes | 18c | 1,560$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2e…edbdbacked Yes | 14c | 1,465$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…df4abacked Yes | 4c | 1,406$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4067backed Yes | 5c | 1,400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…c6f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,379$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3b…6b17backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4b…056fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,296$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b1…113fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,228$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.75 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…cf3ebacked No | 72c | 1,218$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.47 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…3272backed Yes | 7c | 1,141$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…e21fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c46…7804backed Yes | 5c | 1,094$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…c002backed Yes | 18c | 1,089$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bf…1304backed Yes | 14c | 1,013$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.02 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.72 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…2093backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…623fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7a…d125backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3b…de1dbacked Yes | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…d7ecbacked No | 70c | 995.09$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.09 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93cd…f8d7backed Yes | 13c | 956.97$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.56 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 29cpaid | -82%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e2…9631backed Yes | 36c | 945.9$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.87 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6c…b27dbacked Yes | 5c | 940$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4963…e0a5backed Yes | 12c | 937.42$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…18a0backed Yes | 10c | 911.18$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849a…544abacked Yes | 6c | 909.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…a2dcbacked Yes | 33c | 909.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588f…b56fbacked Yes | 39c | 897.12$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes | 2c | 845.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 26c | 845.49$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.18 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked No | 61c | 801$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 46c | 782.53$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.53 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 61c | 762.61$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.1 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22ca…8987backed Yes | 26c | 742.48$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 55c | 740.85$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.21 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 739.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?this page
- Iran Strike on Israel by December 31?Yes won
- Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?Yes won
- Iran Strike on Israel by January 15?No won
- Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.