Middle East · resolved market
Iran Strike on Israel by January 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05a38a32a312df0ce7383a213f56d442b6a59b71e59c37642e11e9a47518856f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $364,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $336,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $364,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes | 9c | 8,194$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.73 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b69…ee2ebacked Yes | 4c | 6,624$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.14 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 5c | 6,220$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.35 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d1…8c37backed Yes | 7c | 5,667$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.04 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 5,369$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.35 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3039…8a62backed Yes | 0c | 5,152$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…191fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,940$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 4,813$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.17 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6da…07a4backed Yes | 11c | 4,794$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x247a…e991backed Yes | 36c | 4,294$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.93 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 4,031$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.56 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce46…bd13backed Yes | 9c | 4,013$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 2c | 3,969$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 3,729$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.82 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…e049backed Yes | 13c | 3,659$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.21 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.2wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…8e24backed Yes | 9c | 3,583$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…633cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,570$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.24 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…1b27backed Yes | 7c | 3,519$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.94 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,104$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 3,068$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…eed3backed Yes | 25c | 3,039$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2420…75a4backed Yes | 11c | 3,015$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,902$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,755$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed Yes | 31c | 2,703$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e2…9631backed Yes | 19c | 2,691$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 2,687$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,664$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.62 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7d…fccdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,632$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2e…edbdbacked Yes | 39c | 2,596$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22ca…8987backed Yes | 12c | 2,558$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4988…e0e6backed Yes | 3c | 2,330$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 2,116$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.31 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 2,002$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.48 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,918$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab2…321ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,855$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…280bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,808$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,628$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.81 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…5459backed Yes | 6c | 1,588$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes | 3c | 1,513$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9121backed Yes | 8c | 1,513$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4b…056fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,504$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e44…0c4ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,471$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -93%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…661cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,465$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,397$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1baf…3ae9backed Yes | 13c | 1,397$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.08 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 1,356$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.62 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db9…2fc9backed Yes | 3c | 1,350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x384f…b1cbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,275$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…92f3backed Yes | 10c | 1,250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9999backed Yes | 6c | 1,181$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6daf…8030backed Yes | 29c | 1,173$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…833ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,156$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…866dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,155$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3c…2ef9backed Yes | 9c | 1,139$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…4d33backed Yes | 9c | 1,133$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bb…162bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,122$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabd2…0562backed Yes | 16c | 1,105$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…6b67backed Yes | 10c | 1,019$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 1c | 1,002$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90fa…d7f0backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 910.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aeb…1c30backed Yes | 11c | 875.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 5c | 854.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…4bd6backed Yes | 12c | 845.79$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…b1b6backed Yes | 17c | 805.73$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…ba74backed Yes | 1c | 799.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…271dbacked Yes | 7c | 781.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 6c | 720.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed No | 80c | 704.65$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.93 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd581…0293backed Yes | 8c | 670$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e42…8f95backed Yes | 5c | 666.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 657.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed Yes | 7c | 639.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 3c | 637.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 7c | 600$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb640…7bd4backed Yes | 5c | 593.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…9b74backed Yes | 9c | 577.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 14c | 564.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…e072backed Yes | 5c | 561.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa79e…4229backed Yes | 17c | 544.46$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…e179backed Yes | 21c | 513.46$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1a…6c60backed Yes | 4c | 511.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…13eebacked Yes | 12c | 503.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…50ecbacked Yes | 13c | 500.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 11c | 490.86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 131 | 6.1%8 W · 123 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe380…0d3bbacked Yes | 6c | 487.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d4…47fcbacked Yes | 17c | 449.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 444.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 14c | 443.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d2…5b2cbacked Yes | 23c | 442.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…e491backed Yes | 19c | 425.02$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1952…f910backed Yes | 12c | 409.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c3…a742backed Yes | 5c | 406.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7f…60ffbacked Yes | 20c | 405.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…c4c2backed Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 9c | 400$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran Strike on Israel by January 15?this page
- Iran Strike on Israel by December 31?Yes won
- Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?Yes won
- Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?No won
- Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.