TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc369…4e87

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
273
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: Tweets, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 54 out of 100; worst Boxing at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Sep 26, 2025, EDT8013.8%11 W · 69 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+52%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 80 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.96
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.61
Will Elon tweet 190–204 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$59
Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.63
Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.51
Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.78
Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.99
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.78
Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will Trump post less than 100 times on Truth Feb 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$29.1
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Jan 24-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$12.15
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 20-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$160
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 20-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$120
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 20-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$120
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 20-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$60
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 20-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$120
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST+4,661.9%+$1,958
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 20-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$22
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 20-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$23.69
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 20-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2024, EST-100%-$33.25
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 13-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$116.17
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 13-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$123.73
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 13-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$287.23
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,139Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+172.2%+$1,960.9
Showing 25 of 80 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT726.9%5 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 72 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.56
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.19
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.81
Will any European country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.6
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$214.52
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,243Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,242.96
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.6
Will Iran strike seven countries in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$25.5
Will Iran strike nine or more countries in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+2,907.5%+$1,933.43
Will Iran strike no countries in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Will the US strike Iraq next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$56.49
Will Iran strike Israel in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$44.93
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$14.1
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$11.62
Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$12.5
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$11.2
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$10.37
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Showing 25 of 72 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 16, 2025, EDT6417.2%11 W · 53 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick17cpaid+20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 64 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$78
Will the highest temperature in London be between 84-85°F on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.21
Will the highest temperature in London be between 82-83°F on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT+158.1%+$32.6
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT+611%+$91.95
Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on August 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.15
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.4
Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on August 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$21.35
Will the highest temperature in London be between 83-84°F on August 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will the highest temperature in London be between 80-81°F on August 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.83
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.75
Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.6
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$78.97
Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
Will the highest temperature in London be between 76-77°F on August 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$53
Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on August 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.21
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.11
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or higher on August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.38
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.35
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$105
Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$81.99
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.5
Showing 25 of 64 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT1414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-43.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
House passes Massie-Khanna war powers resolution by March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.32
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon register the America Party in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
US military action against Iran by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+525%+$168
US military action against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Trump negative approval by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$14.4
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$77.59
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$48.79
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+63.9%+$195
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$103.22
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST-100%-$19.65
Debt ceiling raised or suspended by inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$24
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2025, EDT100%0 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.17
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.5
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$232
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$11.98
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$289.75
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Will Elon Musk settle lawsuit with OpenAI before 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will ChatGPT have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,196Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$1,195.65
All 10 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-78.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.5
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.23
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$314Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+91.1%+$286
Will Israel or the US target Natanz Uranium Enrichment Facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$30
All 9 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2024, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Sep 29, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
$MSTR added to Nasdaq 100?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$402Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST-100%-$402
GME market cap >$20b on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2024, EST-100%-$55.37
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Was Milei hacked?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2025, EST-100%-$69.16
Dogecoin above $0.37 on November 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick24cpaid+325.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST+325.5%+$76.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Georgescu banned from Romania election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+89.6%+$18.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$11.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$264.9
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.