AI · resolved market
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd51a5101d8bb14ad53ac2a0abe871475cf96d42774055ca2aadd0c4229198ef3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $703,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $403,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $703,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 83,297$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0b…36b0backed Yes | 0c | 61,554$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed Yes | 0c | 53,208$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 26,371$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9105…4c47backed Yes | 0c | 19,322$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…4389backed Yes | 1c | 16,722$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 15,054$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623c…4495backed Yes | 1c | 14,140$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8db…91dcbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 11,126$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…d77ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,800$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd4…7630backed Yes | 1c | 8,777$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3017…8d41backed Yes | 0c | 8,338$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6363…8fbcbacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 7,416$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…61c8backed Yes | 0c | 6,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a8…b139backed Yes | 1c | 6,200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf09e…88aebacked Yes | 2c | 5,454$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked Yes | 1c | 5,436$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 6c | 5,130$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb015…846ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…6cfdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,181$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 1c | 4,164$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8774…17f2backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 0c | 3,940$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd74e…045dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,750$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 4c | 3,607$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.27 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbee…e8b5backed Yes | 3c | 3,437$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +254.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 3,281$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7a…b1fdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,179$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…0a66backed Yes | 2c | 2,877$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…9f94backed Yes | 0c | 2,358$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b3…5098backed Yes | 2c | 1,915$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,903$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3f…1e6cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,717$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98bb…41cdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,488$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 5c | 1,478$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,363$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb3…3788backed Yes | 1c | 1,324$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 867.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 2c | 831.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…e62abacked Yes | 3c | 750.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdf…3b40backed Yes | 6c | 584.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca9…9effbacked Yes | 3c | 577.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…dd00backed Yes | 2c | 528.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…6654backed Yes | 4c | 512.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 2cpaid | +343.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a2…b036backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19df…6a82backed Yes | 2c | 493.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a32…3fd9backed Yes | 7c | 400.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40c…8192backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 4c | 380$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…2a55backed Yes | 6c | 284.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 17c | 265$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6c…8c27backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…9a30backed Yes | 10c | 213.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…7c4fbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?No won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28?No won
- Will StepFun have the top AI model on February 28?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.