TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$695,606
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$447,833

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $695,606 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 343 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes2c27,670$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.36011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3017…8d41backed Yes1c21,110$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.7880%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed Yes0c17,751$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.364045%18 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc288…edb1backed Yes5c15,700$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.41323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes79c14,788$11,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,638.681675%12 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fea…c013backed Yes1c12,828$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3979…f49ebacked Yes1c12,500$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52be…a121backed Yes3c10,500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8db…91dcbacked Yes1c10,464$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8150%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc7…302dbacked No25c10,440$2,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,845.76540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+506.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f24…de78backed Yes0c9,333$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes1c8,250$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.742626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes2c8,032$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1366716.4%11 W · 56 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes1c7,422$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.514628.3%13 W · 33 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+77%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes0c7,362$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.89166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-91.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6713…951bbacked Yes2c7,135$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.95633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+89.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7aff…8cf1backed Yes3c6,858$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee8…366fbacked Yes0c6,520$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c6,290$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.23220%0 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11a5…4032backed Yes0c6,278$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2290%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa112…d215backed Yes77c6,055$4,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,663.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+65.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa37f…3584backed No36c6,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,839.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+95.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f42…9fcebacked Yes1c6,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd249…6310backed No58c5,926$3,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,503.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd6…725fbacked Yes48c5,863$2,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,806.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No23c5,728$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,437.792740.7%11 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+41%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes7c5,201$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes61c5,111$3,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,130.342934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked Yes1c5,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.54037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c5,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes38c4,783$1,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,834.272512%3 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-76.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes49c4,470$2,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,173.013240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Yes52c4,468$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,309.54450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51cd…a8f8backed Yes0c4,169$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed Yes60c3,803$2,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,277.552250%11 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbec7…6cfdbacked Yes1c3,727$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.53616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-59.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes66c3,719$2,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,467.0311030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes0c3,683$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1224315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b6…61cebacked Yes3c3,622$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,463$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.541,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes77c3,258$2,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,521.493145.2%14 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+105.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8bc…51fdbacked Yes1c3,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3f2…c208backed Yes2c3,000$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes16c2,999$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.678644.2%38 W · 48 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec40…fce5backed Yes45c2,739$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.184231%13 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-0.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fd2…e01abacked Yes2c2,678$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c80…a608backed No32c2,072$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+54.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc351…8885backed Yes1c2,055$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…94bcbacked Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbee…e8b5backed No20c1,995$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,598.81825%2 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+254.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd07b…1898backed Yes71c1,991$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,405.5330%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x87da…512dbacked Yes6c1,984$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.48922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8d7…9d1cbacked Yes79c1,982$1,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,569.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+71.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad8e…709cbacked Yes66c1,943$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.39425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f00…7addbacked Yes65c1,839$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.23327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed Yes11c1,830$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.92917.2%5 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc0a…e101backed Yes1c1,823$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.23616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+1,011.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes2c1,796$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1d5…5684backed No33c1,789$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.73771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+23.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed Yes44c1,700$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.992128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes12c1,690$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.772623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x686a…6810backed Yes2c1,648$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.161154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes69c1,641$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.311540%6 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c1,599$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.0957426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes29c1,503$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.021346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed Yes7c1,466$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.461729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick19cpaid-42%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39c8…6e68backed No13c1,241$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.65812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No25c1,217$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.7625731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa52b…9480backed Yes68c1,173$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick75cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f42…233bbacked Yes2c1,129$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+124.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes64c1,117$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+91.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe408…232bbacked Yes31c1,109$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.731414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x815b…5ef7backed Yes40c1,065$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.09714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-57.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x61ec…0cf7backed No21c1,050$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.151136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick19cpaid+67%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8528…d446backed Yes5c1,039$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f8…956cbacked No24c1,026$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.612100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+1,130.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xab78…d766backed No37c1,000$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+168.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c1c…4405backed Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c0…4827backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd4…7630backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5159…e44bbacked Yes68c931.68$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3656…b4bbbacked No18c873.88$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+465.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3762…7ff4backed Yes78c837.6$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6511163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb4…02d6backed Yes1c831.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x468f…c2a7backed Yes64c831.89$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.654228.6%12 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-55.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes70c816.46$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.358543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes7c800$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-65.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes60c769.99$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.996053.3%32 W · 28 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+36.2%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes3c732.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+37.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Yes36c712.17$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.59633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+718.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes48c674.7$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.996829.4%20 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes67c673.14$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.11822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79ff…fc59backed Yes4c669.49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes74c634.79$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.82733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bed…f347backed Yes2c610$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes10c608.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.823627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdebd…4671backed Yes2c600$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ee6…693abacked Yes3c576.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes50c570$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.096659.1%39 W · 27 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ff7…d77ebacked Yes5c557.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-68.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.