AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc50248c9651c9c832a4d73c024f4a4a48d289b7ec08a80a65ee3b74f90e37fe2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,324,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,343,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,324,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 404 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed No | 0c | 66,046$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.92 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c0…9cb4backed Yes | 4c | 40,000$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,240 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 2cpaid | +657.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…2737backed Yes | 2c | 28,770$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,280.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +2,841.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 11c | 27,075$3,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,089.37 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked Yes | 2c | 24,274$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,750.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +718.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3899…452ebacked Yes | 24c | 22,384$5,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,021.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed No | 0c | 17,617$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbee…e8b5backed Yes | 4c | 15,599$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,929.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +254.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f8…956cbacked Yes | 5c | 15,380$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,629.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +1,130.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c4…5335backed Yes | 5c | 14,279$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,628.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +998.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…7961backed Yes | 22c | 12,871$2,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,013 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +350.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 53c | 11,604$6,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,497.96 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 75c | 10,663$8,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,639.04 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 14c | 10,399$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.87 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…c419backed Yes | 20c | 10,228$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,227.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked No | 72c | 9,708$6,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,952.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…bfcebacked Yes | 6c | 9,026$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,525.42 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +493.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 17c | 9,018$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.74 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…2e99backed Yes | 10c | 8,387$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,540.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +890.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked No | 46c | 7,568$3,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,465.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…52f0backed Yes | 20c | 7,549$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,065.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…b2a5backed No | 6c | 6,929$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed No | 11c | 6,101$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4569…c0d3backed Yes | 17c | 5,975$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,958.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 32c | 5,808$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,953.05 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…e81fbacked Yes | 23c | 5,495$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,229.87 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…4d6cbacked No | 73c | 5,387$3,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,927.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 1c | 5,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…1751backed Yes | 43c | 4,594$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,596.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 33c | 3,829$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,583.57 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 1c | 3,705$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf817…d678backed Yes | 8c | 3,701$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,395.38 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 4c | 3,493$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.18 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked Yes | 66c | 3,307$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…db9abacked Yes | 80c | 3,282$2,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 17c | 3,224$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.8 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8d…d880backed Yes | 80c | 3,140$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 67c | 3,130$2,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.58 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -42%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 70c | 3,106$2,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,183.1 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 75c | 3,041$2,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,273.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3017…8d41backed No | 16c | 2,880$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.56 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa228…954fbacked No | 14c | 2,842$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes | 47c | 2,708$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.17 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05a…5fddbacked No | 19c | 2,690$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeff7…5a95backed No | 20c | 2,681$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4716…c58dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,667$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,308.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +336.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 3c | 2,606$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,530.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1,039.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,535$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,509.08 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked No | 20c | 2,500$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 12c | 2,468$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,167.83 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3997…e141backed No | 11c | 2,459$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…6cfdbacked No | 11c | 2,437$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc12…ce48backed No | 21c | 2,392$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 14c | 2,341$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.13 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 72c | 2,312$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.21 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…0489backed Yes | 75c | 2,299$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…e101backed Yes | 2c | 2,278$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,243.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 14c | 2,254$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.03 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed No | 13c | 2,134$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.56 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 47c | 2,106$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.3 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6713…951bbacked No | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,939.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +525%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 11c | 1,970$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.04 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8e…962bbacked No | 18c | 1,933$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed No | 18c | 1,681$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 3c | 1,664$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,618.22 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 4c | 1,528$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.5 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 34c | 1,525$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 13c | 1,520$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 77c | 1,514$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.44 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1f…ec73backed No | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 79c | 1,500$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 2c | 1,485$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.76 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7017…fbc1backed No | 10c | 1,479$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e7…21a8backed No | 13c | 1,428$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked No | 17c | 1,400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x393b…91f8backed Yes | 2c | 1,387$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +1,494.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…9f94backed Yes | 15c | 1,366$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.46 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80e…2af8backed No | 30c | 1,288$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe97b…b2eabacked Yes | 80c | 1,249$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 76c | 1,248$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.43 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 11c | 1,195$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.26 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 15c | 1,181$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.58 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a4…543fbacked No | 21c | 1,171$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed Yes | 35c | 1,157$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.96 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…8aeebacked No | 12c | 1,126$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 78c | 1,111$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.84 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…8b82backed Yes | 35c | 1,083$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf25…be9ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,034$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.69 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 36c | 1,012$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.98 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 79c | 1,000$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…7a11backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1,567.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed No | 11c | 1,000$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521a…d12fbacked No | 77c | 1,000$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5c…7a2dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +199.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed No | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…88dabacked Yes | 5c | 999.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.33 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 78c | 992.29$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.65 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 22c | 989.28$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.79 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 44c | 982.52$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?No won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28?No won
- Will StepFun have the top AI model on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.