TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,324,648
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,343,689

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,324,648 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 404 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2d27…76d8backed No0c66,046$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.92220%0 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31c0…9cb4backed Yes4c40,000$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,240333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick2cpaid+657.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x116f…2737backed Yes2c28,770$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,280.91250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick2cpaid+2,841.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No11c27,075$3,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,089.376011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Yes2c24,274$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,750.92633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+718.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3899…452ebacked Yes24c22,384$5,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,021.3825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11a5…4032backed No0c17,617$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1190%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbee…e8b5backed Yes4c15,599$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,929.85825%2 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+254.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58f8…956cbacked Yes5c15,380$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,629.832100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+1,130.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2c4…5335backed Yes5c14,279$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,628.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+998.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbe3…7961backed Yes22c12,871$2,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,0131100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+350.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes53c11,604$6,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,497.966716.4%11 W · 56 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes75c10,663$8,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,639.043627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No14c10,399$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.8725731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x371e…c419backed Yes20c10,228$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,227.7714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked No72c9,708$6,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,952.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-56.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e02…bfcebacked Yes6c9,026$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,525.424100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+493.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No17c9,018$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.742740.7%11 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+41%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd4da…2e99backed Yes10c8,387$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,540.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+890.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked No46c7,568$3,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,465.76742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75d4…52f0backed Yes20c7,549$1,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,065.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+69.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cc…b2a5backed No6c6,929$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.35825%2 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+81.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd03…c6e0backed No11c6,101$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.97728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4569…c0d3backed Yes17c5,975$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,958.74425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes32c5,808$1,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,953.0511030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e8…e81fbacked Yes23c5,495$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,229.87175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-74.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a9b…4d6cbacked No73c5,387$3,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,927.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No1c5,000$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652035%7 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e21…1751backed Yes43c4,594$1,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,596.88837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes33c3,829$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,583.576829.4%20 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked No1c3,705$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf817…d678backed Yes8c3,701$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,395.381118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick6cpaid+63.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed No4c3,493$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.184045%18 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7a3…d8aebacked Yes66c3,307$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.34944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4836…db9abacked Yes80c3,282$2,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.12250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No17c3,224$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.83920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-48.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c8d…d880backed Yes80c3,140$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.9366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed Yes67c3,130$2,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.581729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick19cpaid-42%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No70c3,106$2,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,183.16150.8%31 W · 30 L+16.6wins+0.27per pick24cpaid+158.1%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No75c3,041$2,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,273.44812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-81.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3017…8d41backed No16c2,880$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.5680%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa228…954fbacked No14c2,842$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes47c2,708$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,436.178644.2%38 W · 48 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe05a…5fddbacked No19c2,690$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-73.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeff7…5a95backed No20c2,681$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4716…c58dbacked Yes13c2,667$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,308.492100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+336.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed Yes3c2,606$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,530.19333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+1,039.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes1c2,535$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,509.0824315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked No20c2,500$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes12c2,468$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,167.831631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3997…e141backed No11c2,459$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27450%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbec7…6cfdbacked No11c2,437$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.5616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-59.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc12…ce48backed No21c2,392$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.45728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No14c2,341$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.134037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes72c2,312$1,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.2157426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d6…0489backed Yes75c2,299$1,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.77560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+38.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc0a…e101backed Yes2c2,278$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,243.88616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+1,011.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No14c2,254$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.033920.5%8 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed No13c2,134$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.56911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-51.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8528…d446backed Yes47c2,106$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.33828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6713…951bbacked No14c2,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.9633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+89.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes3c2,000$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,939.99633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+525%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No11c1,970$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.046328.6%18 W · 45 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+59%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb8e…962bbacked No18c1,933$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…1d52backed No18c1,681$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+93.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes3c1,664$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,618.222941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+96.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec40…fce5backed Yes4c1,528$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.54231%13 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-0.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefbb…65e8backed Yes34c1,525$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.5520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No13c1,520$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.19757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes77c1,514$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.441540%6 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a1f…ec73backed No10c1,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.47450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+32.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No79c1,500$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick64cpaid-67.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1581…6cadbacked Yes2c1,485$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,456.762313%3 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+168.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7017…fbc1backed No10c1,479$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7e7…21a8backed No13c1,428$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked No17c1,400$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.68425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-66.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x393b…91f8backed Yes2c1,387$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.96333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick6cpaid+1,494.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24ed…9f94backed Yes15c1,366$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,167.46128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf80e…2af8backed No30c1,288$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe97b…b2eabacked Yes80c1,249$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.27837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes76c1,248$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.437330.1%22 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes11c1,195$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.2610933.9%37 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed No15c1,181$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.581216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-67.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3a4…543fbacked No21c1,171$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.141118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick26cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3fb…b340backed Yes35c1,157$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.961631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeee…8aeebacked No12c1,126$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No78c1,111$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.844736.2%17 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x061e…8b82backed Yes35c1,083$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.96425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf25…be9ebacked Yes21c1,034$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.692218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x048a…eb07backed Yes36c1,012$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.984117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes79c1,000$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.22040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8244…7a11backed Yes3c1,000$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+1,567.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed No11c1,000$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107150%0 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x521a…d12fbacked No77c1,000$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5c…7a2dbacked Yes3c1,000$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9661233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+199.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed No18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.88540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee75…88dabacked Yes5c999.84$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.33147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick13cpaid+50.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes78c992.29$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.652740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No22c989.28$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.795635.7%20 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes44c982.52$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.38728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+91.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.