TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6e02…bfce

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
67
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: AI, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category AI at 58 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+64.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$31.3
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$9,948Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+235.1%+$23,391.83
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$293.21
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$927Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$927.04
Will Trump say Make America Great Again during his Iran address on June 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$72.35
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+777.7%+$983.53
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$19.2
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.63
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$724Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+156.6%+$1,133.1
Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$66.48
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,438Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$1,438.2
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Sep 9, 2025, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$165
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+68.9%+$10.2
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.77
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$106.63
Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$122.64
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Manitoba in the next Canadian Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+100%+$22.47
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$179.01
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in British Columbia in the next Canadian Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$14.19
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+41.1%+$87.8
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$367.14
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$51,160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$51,160.3
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$23,930Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+193.5%+$46,316.35
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17,883Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17,883.14
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$373Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$238.68
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,002Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+99.7%+$998.26
Iran strike on Qatar today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+87.4%+$46.64
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$12.9
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,589Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$1,589.16
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$100.91
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.5
Will no Senate vote on an Epstein disclosure bill occur by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Will at least 95 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,005Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$1,005
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$289Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$289
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$2,009Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$2,008.8
Will a Democrat win Texas US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$144.5
Will a Republican win Texas US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$149.74
Will a candidate from another party win Nebraska US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$514Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2024, EST-100%-$513.95
Will a Republican win Nebraska US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$717Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2024, EST-100%-$717.12
All 9 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+58.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2025, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+493.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-65.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+56.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
PGA Championship: Bryson DeChambeau vs. Brooks Koepkabacked DeChambeau · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+100%+$18.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$390
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arsenal wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Aug 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texas vs. Ohio Statebacked Texas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,751Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,750.55
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.