World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2375f0b213620282e0439a830953ba0f9663e987b21450efb37135e407b5c0d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $427,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $486,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $427,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7784…5b6dbacked No | 7c | 19,240$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.11 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…8b28backed No | 7c | 15,948$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.62 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ce…a249backed No | 6c | 15,296$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.78 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…b5a4backed No | 12c | 12,122$1,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…1863backed No | 8c | 10,521$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9f…5b06backed No | 10c | 9,973$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.64 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea19…1f31backed No | 6c | 7,851$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 6c | 7,629$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.06 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…da8bbacked No | 7c | 7,548$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…22a8backed No | 8c | 6,014$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.52 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e64…2190backed No | 6c | 5,029$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a50…fa96backed No | 9c | 3,861$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 8c | 2,709$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.77 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked No | 7c | 2,465$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.58 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fa…53cfbacked No | 12c | 2,410$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2c…3544backed No | 10c | 1,866$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.59 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c42…7eb5backed No | 9c | 1,836$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 16c | 1,675$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.71 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf5…a5e4backed No | 8c | 1,557$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 14c | 1,547$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.93 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 6c | 1,507$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.39 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…bfcebacked No | 14c | 1,303$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…e9e0backed No | 9c | 1,262$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.58 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ba…9f75backed No | 7c | 1,134$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 16c | 1,098$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.53 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…42c6backed No | 14c | 1,024$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…b3e8backed No | 12c | 968.33$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.85 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed No | 6c | 968.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 10c | 768$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…a51ebacked No | 8c | 755.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed No | 7c | 701$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 8c | 562.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 10c | 515.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed No | 13c | 440$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…0ad1backed No | 14c | 437.53$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked No | 10c | 366.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…47ffbacked No | 7c | 276.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54c5…a121backed No | 8c | 261.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 5c | 259.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee04…c22bbacked No | 6c | 255.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 8c | 251.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 242.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 9c | 240$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3f…5d43backed No | 10c | 188.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 11c | 147$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…5924backed No | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76af…12a9backed No | 10c | 133$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9e…a0b8backed No | 11c | 133$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 14c | 122.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13c0…1230backed No | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x112c…9773backed No | 11c | 99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…d2e4backed No | 12c | 86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will another party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Green Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the People's Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.