World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27cfabf50780161dcc82328dcc9f67d122824548fbf3b4aebcd08d98fdd76a4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $339,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $291,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $339,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcba5…8b28backed Yes | 3c | 29,322$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.98 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 26,500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7448…460bbacked Yes | 3c | 21,760$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fa…53cfbacked Yes | 2c | 18,601$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 15,833$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.16 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9f…5b06backed Yes | 1c | 12,721$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.54 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…f43cbacked Yes | 17c | 10,825$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a1…e0d3backed Yes | 2c | 9,970$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.06 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…e1e3backed Yes | 1c | 8,425$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d5…9dc5backed Yes | 3c | 8,296$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58a…25b6backed Yes | 2c | 6,612$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…5b6dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f09…8a8abacked Yes | 1c | 4,892$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c22…3bcbbacked Yes | 1c | 4,776$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6049…5c72backed Yes | 4c | 4,652$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0be…8534backed Yes | 2c | 4,632$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a50…fa96backed Yes | 2c | 4,176$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…e9e0backed Yes | 1c | 3,811$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f3…fdcabacked Yes | 4c | 3,715$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.46 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed No | 61c | 3,600$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +192.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a04…6b49backed Yes | 3c | 3,254$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27a…a0e2backed Yes | 3c | 3,069$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,911$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…359fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,721$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…07acbacked Yes | 2c | 2,598$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa752…8dbabacked Yes | 4c | 2,326$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 1c | 2,227$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a5…0093backed Yes | 2c | 1,838$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,835$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,823$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,621$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…ceb2backed Yes | 1c | 1,611$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…36c3backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0817…d7fabacked Yes | 1c | 1,331$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc0…d9f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,314$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…51f8backed Yes | 4c | 1,312$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd3…8904backed Yes | 3c | 1,310$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…d8f0backed Yes | 2c | 1,180$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80c…e2d3backed Yes | 1c | 1,145$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e34…4982backed Yes | 2c | 1,063$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f0…b70ebacked Yes | 1c | 912.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed Yes | 4c | 807.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d5…88c5backed Yes | 3c | 718.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e78fbacked Yes | 2c | 611.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…0342backed Yes | 12c | 593.47$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3f…5d43backed Yes | 3c | 521.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc601…bf3fbacked Yes | 9c | 477.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe82e…ecaabacked Yes | 3c | 420.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…7d09backed Yes | 4c | 284.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 9c | 256.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 52c | 25.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will another party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Green Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?Yes won
- Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the People's Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.