TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe05f…b3e8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
343
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: MLB, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 55 out of 100; worst World Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT29145.4%132 W · 159 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 291 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Metsbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$77.99
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Soxbacked Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.03
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$165
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$181.86
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Colorado Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.99
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Soxbacked Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.7
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Colorado Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.14
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankeesbacked Kansas City Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.2
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Colorado Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+253.7%+$394.19
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Colorado Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$349.01
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubsbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.4
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Colorado Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.99
Texas Rangers vs. Athleticsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$185.5
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.4
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.26
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.3
Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+100%+$52.55
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twinsbacked Minnesota Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$19.94
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$233.5
Texas Rangers vs. Athleticsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.59
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankeesbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$22.36
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royalsbacked Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+166.7%+$368.08
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Texas Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$33
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padresbacked Colorado Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.27
Showing 25 of 291 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,866Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+66.1%+$1,234.18
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.5
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.69
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$298Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+59.3%+$176.6
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$15.86
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+291.8%+$334.47
Will Elon register the America Party in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.89
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$378Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$377.7
Kash Patel out by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+193.2%+$91.59
Elon forms new party within 1 day of the spending bill passing?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$198
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Friday June  27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$115.8
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-83.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Another Canada election called in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50.12
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,158Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+100.1%+$1,159.91
Will Winsome Earle-Sears win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$437Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$437.24
NDP member appointed to the Canadian cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.29
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$74
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$288Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$288
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse no one?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.99
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$316.56
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.45
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$129.6
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$114.85
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+55.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$71.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.