World Politics · resolved market
NDP member appointed to the Canadian cabinet?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47f292aa7a53bb349deea78118bffd887472b9254be41b4c8b4e4871b48f8e4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ef2…1863backed Yes | 8c | 2,025$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…22a8backed Yes | 10c | 1,657$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.98 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 975.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 12c | 934.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 6c | 657.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 4c | 641.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 521.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 6c | 392.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 318.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa864…c2a1backed Yes | 6c | 246.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 14c | 226.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 10c | 200.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 12c | 184.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 6c | 183.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 11c | 174.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…b3e8backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 132$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe08…ed8fbacked Yes | 13c | 109.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8aa…c4b0backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 17c | 74.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd694…6488backed No | 76c | 24.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.