Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon register the America Party in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1cb040420a6877ec2b3e5e0901ed2029d85b42d5c1b939cecc27071c8536b0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $599,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $597,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $599,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 475 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 44c | 30,755$13,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,558.42 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed No | 41c | 24,255$9,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,364.68 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 10c | 16,503$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.26 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bc…b36cbacked Yes | 28c | 13,919$3,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,937.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed No | 58c | 13,768$8,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,762.85 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca6…a262backed Yes | 27c | 12,753$3,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,473.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 55c | 11,243$6,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,111.54 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 37c | 9,736$3,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,146.49 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Yes | 58c | 8,954$5,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,196.05 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…8c45backed Yes | 80c | 8,450$6,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,719.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415a…d1e2backed Yes | 33c | 8,249$2,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,707.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 21c | 7,500$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…e8d0backed Yes | 51c | 7,492$3,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,853.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 63c | 7,401$4,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,761.8 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 18c | 7,114$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.35 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76f3…ae51backed Yes | 23c | 6,868$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 33c | 6,338$2,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070.75 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…8f97backed No | 80c | 6,238$4,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 52c | 5,455$2,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,842 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 42c | 5,173$2,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,024.89 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 40c | 4,556$1,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,714.25 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8964…0becbacked Yes | 20c | 4,507$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.72 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 44c | 4,387$1,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,936.68 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 62c | 4,190$2,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.11 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 33c | 4,189$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.65 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 47c | 4,130$1,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,201.89 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 46c | 3,909$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,107.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 38c | 3,801$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.83 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 76c | 3,799$2,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.79 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 29c | 3,619$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.6 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 27c | 3,555$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.5 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 49c | 3,548$1,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,741.41 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 43c | 3,525$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,019.59 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0663…4a2bbacked Yes | 13c | 3,348$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f1…dcbbbacked Yes | 16c | 3,116$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb4…e31fbacked Yes | 39c | 3,077$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 29c | 2,972$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.11 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…cbbbbacked Yes | 60c | 2,823$1,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,688.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed No | 70c | 2,670$1,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.81 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdef…82acbacked Yes | 20c | 2,540$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 49c | 2,423$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.69 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed No | 53c | 2,316$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be0…0154backed Yes | 63c | 2,313$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 73c | 2,268$1,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 20c | 2,253$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.97 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 2,239$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 73c | 2,205$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.26 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed Yes | 59c | 2,125$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 15c | 2,100$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.99 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed Yes | 45c | 2,084$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.39 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 49c | 2,036$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.9 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 73c | 2,000$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.5 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 61c | 2,000$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.99 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 43c | 2,000$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.98 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 12c | 1,992$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.35 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 35c | 1,924$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.33 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed Yes | 52c | 1,910$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a9…0878backed Yes | 7c | 1,815$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa735…b423backed Yes | 23c | 1,790$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.02 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 51c | 1,768$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Yes | 14c | 1,721$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddb…6bcabacked Yes | 57c | 1,651$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 75c | 1,610$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.21 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,600$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…dd02backed Yes | 11c | 1,562$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 25c | 1,492$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.92 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 44c | 1,475$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Yes | 12c | 1,417$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 48c | 1,350$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed No | 39c | 1,333$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.51 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 36c | 1,325$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.48 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb4…7124backed Yes | 30c | 1,316$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.29 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x199b…76d8backed Yes | 60c | 1,250$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 48c | 1,248$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,246$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.18 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 46c | 1,232$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.7 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…d3c7backed Yes | 23c | 1,200$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e7…43bdbacked Yes | 24c | 1,200$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 1,188$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.76 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x268b…024fbacked Yes | 57c | 1,159$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 45c | 1,141$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.98 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…d000backed Yes | 10c | 1,132$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 1,109$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…c3ebbacked Yes | 37c | 1,100$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2473…859dbacked No | 49c | 1,089$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…c09fbacked No | 53c | 1,055$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d6…ab4abacked Yes | 8c | 1,053$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed No | 42c | 1,042$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb044…87adbacked No | 48c | 1,041$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…3b03backed Yes | 30c | 1,013$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.3 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 42c | 1,000$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.5 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…0193backed No | 73c | 982.21$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 20c | 975$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.75 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 56c | 950.6$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.83 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -6.7wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa93d…2affbacked Yes | 32c | 950$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon register the America Party in July?this page
- Will Elon register the America Party before October?No won
- Will Elon register the America Party by August 31?No won
- Will Elon register the America Party in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.