Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon register the America Party before October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bd6db90d9f6a2de930f44287637758a3cd2e567e7421e3a38a266b8d61708f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 73c | 11,010$8,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,922.89 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 25c | 10,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 4c | 9,114$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.73 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x141b…e9dfbacked Yes | 3c | 8,656$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdef…82acbacked Yes | 48c | 3,038$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 64c | 2,913$1,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.64 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 50c | 2,035$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.53 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…e8d0backed No | 51c | 1,962$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked No | 63c | 1,945$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.03 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…3177backed Yes | 5c | 1,819$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…657fbacked Yes | 76c | 1,720$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked No | 28c | 1,691$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfc…9836backed No | 80c | 1,594$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,578$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed Yes | 16c | 1,500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 31c | 1,301$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.95 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed No | 26c | 1,256$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.96 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 76c | 1,152$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed No | 61c | 1,096$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.98 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…a925backed Yes | 38c | 1,089$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed No | 36c | 1,072$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.84 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…2a55backed Yes | 43c | 999.99$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 31c | 999.99$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.59 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 38c | 964.09$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.54 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 74c | 934.16$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.48 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 32c | 807.27$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.92 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf210…e8bdbacked Yes | 68c | 762$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 56c | 695$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.65 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc71…eb87backed Yes | 66c | 627.72$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 20c | 623.97$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.84 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf0…6e2abacked Yes | 48c | 622.44$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…63dabacked No | 73c | 610.89$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.53 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0650…64edbacked Yes | 74c | 606.89$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 603$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…c3ebbacked Yes | 64c | 599.99$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 25c | 599.62$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.05 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 6c | 596.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9d…f9febacked Yes | 3c | 588.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed Yes | 4c | 545$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1,019.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2f…067bbacked No | 71c | 527.28$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 58c | 508.21$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.76 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 54c | 500$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.27 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 40c | 499.99$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.99 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…8c40backed No | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes | 65c | 475$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 3c | 460$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 30c | 442.71$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.82 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 45c | 441.93$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.06 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…8f8bbacked Yes | 5c | 431.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…09b5backed Yes | 5c | 429$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 69c | 400$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.94 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 50c | 397.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.15 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 392.91$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.37 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12bc…b36cbacked No | 58c | 386.52$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 33c | 378.12$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.17 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 66c | 373$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.21 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 58c | 358.21$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.77 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 3c | 349.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb942…f73ebacked No | 30c | 338.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 51c | 337.87$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.15 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 76c | 328.95$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d92…52d1backed Yes | 44c | 303.2$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…e2e8backed Yes | 76c | 302.92$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…a0b9backed Yes | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb45…81c1backed No | 54c | 278.25$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 66c | 274.83$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.44 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 70c | 252.78$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.95 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…178dbacked Yes | 49c | 250.94$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7901…5575backed No | 40c | 249.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 16c | 237.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33b0…c635backed No | 58c | 234.27$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 23c | 232.14$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.75 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 32c | 232.14$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.86 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c9…5152backed No | 74c | 223.18$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed No | 65c | 220$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc42…4f1ebacked No | 60c | 218.69$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 48c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.56 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 29c | 200$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.77 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -6.7wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69c5…5727backed No | 39c | 180.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed No | 74c | 179.92$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x943f…43a7backed No | 57c | 175.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 68c | 173.41$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb6…c811backed No | 68c | 170.59$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa779…0aacbacked Yes | 62c | 162.06$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 56c | 158.68$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.29 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…8745backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed No | 72c | 150.69$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 72c | 150$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 144$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.13 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 53c | 142.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.31 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…5b84backed Yes | 74c | 132.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…0165backed Yes | 38c | 119.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x688f…348dbacked Yes | 71c | 118$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.8wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon register the America Party before October?this page
- Will Elon register the America Party by August 31?No won
- Will Elon register the America Party in 2025?No won
- Will Elon register the America Party in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.