Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e3770cae6cdcc10472046db723810eaf3993da13ff186b7765e6533cf318c73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $389,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $427,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $389,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 312 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 58c | 23,047$13,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,688.79 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed Yes | 52c | 14,780$7,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,660.29 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df4…3dc7backed Yes | 32c | 14,642$4,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,651.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes | 34c | 12,509$4,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,225 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141b…e9dfbacked Yes | 3c | 10,519$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 35c | 10,289$3,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,646.57 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed No | 28c | 10,227$2,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,370.06 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,499.99 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415a…d1e2backed Yes | 24c | 8,391$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,029.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 38c | 8,199$3,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,065.61 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 61c | 7,186$4,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,819.18 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 57c | 7,112$4,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,073 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 47c | 6,822$3,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,598.39 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 73c | 6,527$4,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,771.13 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 5,900$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 30c | 5,847$1,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,119.32 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 42c | 5,375$2,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,235.93 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 30c | 4,974$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,473.18 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed Yes | 9c | 4,919$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.39 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1,019.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 42c | 4,880$2,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,836.71 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 11c | 4,834$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.48 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked Yes | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 47c | 3,554$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,873.98 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 3,320$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.73 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 65c | 3,160$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.89 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…a925backed Yes | 46c | 3,104$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed Yes | 17c | 2,922$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.99 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…416abacked Yes | 70c | 2,856$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked No | 20c | 2,740$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,190.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…657fbacked Yes | 77c | 2,397$1,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,848.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…e8d0backed No | 26c | 2,315$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 42c | 2,300$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 36c | 2,267$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.41 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09c…f710backed No | 55c | 2,222$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed No | 25c | 2,108$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.74 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…2a55backed Yes | 48c | 2,048$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 32c | 2,004$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.73 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…ed32backed Yes | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 76c | 1,948$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.03 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 29c | 1,869$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.24 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 22c | 1,741$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.07 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked Yes | 49c | 1,713$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.71 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…573abacked No | 79c | 1,653$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f87…f277backed Yes | 72c | 1,478$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 9c | 1,355$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.75 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 10c | 1,239$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 43c | 1,214$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8da…f944backed Yes | 66c | 1,206$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Yes | 51c | 1,186$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 69c | 1,154$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.52 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 63c | 1,151$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.77 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,089$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9d…2292backed Yes | 79c | 1,085$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 11c | 1,018$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 66c | 1,000$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5f…cbbfbacked Yes | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 57c | 982.72$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.39 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1a…ac61backed Yes | 52c | 967.31$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…d389backed No | 53c | 965.53$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 26c | 958.57$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 956$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 55c | 951.29$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.71 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 43c | 914.92$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.72 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…0164backed No | 46c | 905.12$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 3c | 894.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a3…9eb4backed Yes | 58c | 893.62$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed Yes | 73c | 880$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.6 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 49c | 845.42$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.17 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 21c | 838.81$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.71 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -6.7wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9a…4661backed Yes | 75c | 780$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 70c | 776.45$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.07 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed No | 59c | 752$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.32 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…09b5backed Yes | 11c | 706.72$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f3…ae51backed Yes | 9c | 663.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked No | 51c | 645.81$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.82 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 39c | 636$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.46 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…f747backed No | 71c | 634.68$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.68 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 78c | 550.48$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.81 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbf…a7bebacked Yes | 54c | 542.79$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed No | 33c | 530$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.53 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 73c | 528$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.99 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…26b0backed No | 57c | 523.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 21c | 518.98$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.99 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa119…1876backed No | 48c | 510.29$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…3a4cbacked Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…b07cbacked Yes | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134b…8677backed Yes | 10c | 496$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed No | 34c | 495.66$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.68 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 75c | 483.7$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.9 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…bfa8backed Yes | 51c | 480.16$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce46…a9afbacked No | 56c | 479.13$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…cc68backed Yes | 41c | 476$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a32…c6cdbacked Yes | 2c | 465.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90cc…8b0ebacked No | 52c | 461.52$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…c2aebacked Yes | 41c | 458.98$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb737…3936backed Yes | 48c | 446.55$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb41…a826backed No | 45c | 443.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon register the America Party in 2025?this page
- Will Elon register the America Party before October?No won
- Will Elon register the America Party by August 31?No won
- Will Elon register the America Party in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.