TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0b64…49bd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
219
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: AI, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category AI at 62 out of 100; worst Middle East at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT7254.2%39 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 72 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$922Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$275.29
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$738Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$737.8
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$414Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+104.1%+$431.17
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+257.1%+$360
Will Trump jail Biden family member?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$35.1
Will Trump create a DOGE dividend in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,347Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31%+$727.05
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,316Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+112.8%+$1,484
Trump takes Panama Canal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$198
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$23.79
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38.46
Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$539Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$161
Will Cuomo endorse Eric Adams?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+37%+$81
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+455.6%+$820
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,511Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$1,510.61
Will Trump endorse Eric Adams?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+104.1%+$26.86
Will Trump visit Gaza by Oct 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$180
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+100%+$20
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$480
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$209.98
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$567Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+114.6%+$649.22
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$356Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$355.99
Will Ghislaine Maxwell cut a deal with the Feds by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$18.76
Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$349Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+430%+$1,501.99
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$3,928Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+27.3%+$1,072.25
Will Trump release more Epstein files by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+138.4%+$235.73
Showing 25 of 72 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT4641.3%19 W · 27 L-6.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,360Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,360
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$170
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$771Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+29.7%+$229
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$4,920Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$4,919.54
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$182.83
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,080Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,079.99
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,869Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,868.99
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$198.44
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,702Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.3%+$448
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,583Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,583.17
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15,544Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37.9%+$5,892.86
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.8
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$923Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$922.88
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$21
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+49.5%+$83.69
Israel strikes Iran before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$87
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$280
Israeli ground operation against Fordow before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.73
Will Israel raid Gaza aid ship Handala by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$99
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$395Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$395
Strike on Israel's Dimonah nuclear base in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$770Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$230
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$168.36
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$754Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$754.27
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$174
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$7,399Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,398.61
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-49.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$4,856Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+114.2%+$5,544
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41.6
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$329.99
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$210
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?backed Gaza · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$140
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$365Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+37%+$135
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$665Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$665.36
Nothing Ever Happens backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$168
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,480Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$520
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$18
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$44.31
Will France win Eurovision 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$12
Will Norway win Eurovision 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$20.17
Will Italy win Eurovision 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$55
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
All 16 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST1435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-50.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Stocks — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$365
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$250
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+51.5%+$102
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $160 before 2026??backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25%+$100
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $165 before 2026??backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+51.5%+$170
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 end of November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$206.99
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 end of November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$28.51
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,172Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$1,172.38
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$217.88
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 10 above $190?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+29.9%+$8.97
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 10 above $185?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+33.3%+$8.75
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 10 above $195?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$162.19
Will Trump sell shares of DJT before the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2024, EST-100%-$17.5
All 14 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+40.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,262Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+50.5%+$637.88
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$3,539Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+76.7%+$2,715.88
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+185.7%+$1,300
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$919Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$919.15
Bitcoin all time high before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$450
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$78
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$147
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$540
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Bitcoin all time high by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$2,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$2,100
Bitcoin all time high day after election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2024, EST+455.6%+$1,229.96
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT1181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.34per pick48cpaid+124.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,467Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$644.54
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+812.2%+$461.51
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,054Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+73.8%+$1,516.27
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+69.5%+$123
Will no CEO be announced in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+325.7%+$543.17
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$392Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+104.1%+$408
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,568Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+43.9%+$1,127.71
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,745Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+32.9%+$573.63
OpenAI acquired in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$80.82
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT+66.8%+$54
GPT-5 released in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$102
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Larger Margin of Victory: Mamdani vs Prop 50?backed Proposition 50 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$23.31
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$519Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$519.46
Will Curtis Sliwa get between 13% and 16% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$70
Will Curtis Sliwa get between 10% and 13% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Curtis Sliwa get between 16% and 19% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$95
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,480Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+35.1%+$520
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$917Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+350.8%+$3,216.31
Zohran Mamdani Parlaybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+92.3%+$288
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$3,241Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$3,240.57
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+28.2%+$110
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$291.72
All 11 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2024, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Ciryl Gane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+100%+$500
Jones vs. Miocicbacked Miocic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$389.96
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
D4vd arrested by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$204.99
Diddy sex tape released before November? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+31.6%+$120
All 2 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+345.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+345.7%+$963.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will all LA wildfires be fully contained before February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+61.3%+$95.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+50.7%+$51.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$2,255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,255.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Aug 26, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$99.9
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.