TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Italy win Eurovision 2024?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$87,217
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,929

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,217 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb747…b050backed Yes14c47,353$6,691 inLost-$6,690.683537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb7…692cbacked Yes15c9,852$1,516 inLost-$1,516.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c94…816fbacked Yes1c2,000$20 inLost-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes14c1,605$225 inLost-$224.765922%13 W · 46 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-61.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes7c601$42 inLost-$42.1612927.9%36 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes11c500$55 inLost-$551631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-49.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes13c435$58 inLost-$57.6814121.3%30 W · 111 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ff…8047backed Yes19c260$50 inLost-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost-$203458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x827b…ee59backed Yes8c148.5$12 inLost-$11.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ba0…bdebbacked Yes17c117.65$20 inLost-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+101.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes17c108.24$18 inLost-$184461.4%27 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe45…0261backed Yes19c54.79$10 inLost-$10.41333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.