TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2024?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,601
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,779

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,601 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb747…b050backed Yes9c22,643$2,056 inLost-$2,055.563537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfaa…fad2backed Yes8c2,163$170 inLost-$170540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+31.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0428…9b44backed Yes13c2,000$260 inLost-$26010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes13c1,778$230 inLost-$230.0914121.3%30 W · 111 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ee…5933backed Yes4c1,428$57 inLost-$57.14333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x705f…3fcfbacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost-$100825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes8c980.55$80 inLost-$79.96905.6%5 W · 85 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-82.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes18c967.45$174 inLost-$173.823724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+90.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes12c500$60 inLost-$59.9512927.9%36 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe8e…0045backed Yes12c500$60 inLost-$59.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes15c400$60 inLost-$605922%13 W · 46 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-61.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No76c250$190 inWon+$601758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f76…33c5backed Yes10c222$22 inLost-$22.240%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes21c211$44 inLost-$44.311631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-49.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x312c…b72abacked Yes10c200$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe45…0261backed Yes18c186.17$33 inLost-$33.01333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6734…fd07backed Yes10c168.9$17 inLost-$16.8950%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec9e…0d04backed Yes12c168.17$19 inLost-$19.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b7e…5b3cbacked Yes20c121.15$24 inLost-$24.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7765…43d0backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No79c90.68$72 inWon+$19.043100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa61…ca4cbacked Yes18c83.33$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f0…87fcbacked Yes21c71.43$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes15c66.69$10 inLost-$10837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.