Ukraine · resolved market
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc090f5e0ed79b5f3ff6199363a2475885e5d383b4cd7cc1a6a304d32b5d0873
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa84b…5055backed Yes | 50c | 16,455$8,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,147.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 11c | 9,862$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed Yes | 58c | 9,236$5,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,383.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 64c | 9,000$5,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,270 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 51c | 8,809$4,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,346.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5975…6820backed Yes | 46c | 8,059$3,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,696.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 72c | 4,698$3,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,327.21 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f18…a7e4backed Yes | 57c | 4,370$2,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,483.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0e…de8dbacked No | 56c | 3,009$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 51c | 2,948$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 36c | 2,732$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.41 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d8…1fc6backed Yes | 58c | 2,621$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…3842backed Yes | 20c | 2,539$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 50c | 1,876$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked No | 56c | 1,440$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 34c | 1,410$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.07 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 63c | 1,237$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.12 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 20c | 746.64$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.61 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed No | 65c | 650.25$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…09ebbacked No | 59c | 587.02$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ee…fc06backed No | 67c | 546.02$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67a…e558backed No | 58c | 511.91$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc1…2dc9backed Yes | 53c | 350$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe2…c78ebacked No | 62c | 321.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe97e…3638backed No | 45c | 320$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf203…00a2backed Yes | 70c | 319.23$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 67c | 307.06$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.81 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…4f0fbacked Yes | 65c | 269.23$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf7…e7dabacked No | 57c | 263.01$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ff…8047backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c45…9c1dbacked No | 44c | 214.86$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…7ad1backed Yes | 56c | 213.33$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes | 47c | 210.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.87 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 53c | 205$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.95 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 40cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 43c | 200$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.6 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…bc48backed No | 50c | 199.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed No | 66c | 197.96$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +167.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67a…573fbacked Yes | 21c | 190.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ee…5933backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 34c | 159.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5771backed No | 69c | 155.07$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb078…0752backed No | 52c | 133.47$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…9064backed Yes | 44c | 132.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked No | 52c | 127$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae3…6537backed No | 72c | 116.16$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c5…923dbacked No | 48c | 113.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -65%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes | 62c | 104.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaa…fad2backed No | 59c | 100.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…816fbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9750backed No | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x732a…55d3backed No | 30c | 81.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +309.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dba…b40ebacked Yes | 24c | 74.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d1…60f0backed No | 60c | 73.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…2f89backed Yes | 70c | 70.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x818f…638bbacked No | 39c | 64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…5e3fbacked No | 79c | 60.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…af7bbacked Yes | 50c | 59.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee5…7e2fbacked Yes | 68c | 59.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66cd…7b7ebacked No | 74c | 45.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bb…3f8bbacked No | 70c | 42.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 42.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…4c45backed Yes | 61c | 42.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes | 55c | 39.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 45c | 39.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9b…435cbacked Yes | 68c | 39.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…9964backed No | 54c | 38.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd686…5c67backed Yes | 54c | 35.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…0e4bbacked Yes | 66c | 30.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b0…428dbacked No | 41c | 24.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…0825backed Yes | 70c | 22.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6be…629ebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…ffefbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df1…d7fbbacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb81…d02abacked Yes | 70c | 18.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Croatia win Eurovision 2024?this page
- Will Armenia win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Australia win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Austria win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Belgium win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Finland win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will France win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Georgia win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Greece win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Iceland win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Ireland win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Israel win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Italy win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Norway win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Poland win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Spain win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Sweden win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2024?Yes won
- Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will another country win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will the United Kingdom win Eurovision 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.