TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Croatia win Eurovision 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$149,720
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$138,885

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,720 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa84b…5055backed Yes50c16,455$8,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,147.14475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes11c9,862$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Yes58c9,236$5,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,383.21366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No64c9,000$5,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2703537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked No51c8,809$4,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,346.24728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-40.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5975…6820backed Yes46c8,059$3,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,696.6940%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No72c4,698$3,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,327.21905.6%5 W · 85 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-82.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f18…a7e4backed Yes57c4,370$2,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,483.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e0e…de8dbacked No56c3,009$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes51c2,948$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.461136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-51.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes36c2,732$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.413724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+90.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13d8…1fc6backed Yes58c2,621$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07b8…3842backed Yes20c2,539$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No50c1,876$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe74d…22fdbacked No56c1,440$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes34c1,410$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.0712927.9%36 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed No63c1,237$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.12175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-90.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes20c746.64$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.615922%13 W · 46 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-61.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc2e…2358backed No65c650.25$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x722c…09ebbacked No59c587.02$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.68425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-57.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34ee…fc06backed No67c546.02$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc67a…e558backed No58c511.91$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc1…2dc9backed Yes53c350$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffe2…c78ebacked No62c321.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.87333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-46.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe97e…3638backed No45c320$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1761100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf203…00a2backed Yes70c319.23$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No67c307.06$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.814461.4%27 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb904…4f0fbacked Yes65c269.23$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdf7…e7dabacked No57c263.01$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ff…8047backed Yes21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c45…9c1dbacked No44c214.86$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25eb…7ad1backed Yes56c213.33$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes47c210.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.871020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-68.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed No53c205$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.95977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.38per pick40cpaid+85.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed No43c200$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.61822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-56.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe746…bc48backed No50c199.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…3c92backed No66c197.96$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+167.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc67a…573fbacked Yes21c190.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ee…5933backed No59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes34c159.53$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.713458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa557…5771backed No69c155.07$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.073100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+52.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4616…e881backed No69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+164.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb078…0752backed No52c133.47$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e00…9064backed Yes44c132.93$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c61…ac8bbacked No52c127$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.88837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeae3…6537backed No72c116.16$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.53475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+27%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c5…923dbacked No48c113.42$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.38616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-65%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes62c104.54$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfaa…fad2backed No59c100.1$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.04540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+31.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c94…816fbacked No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7cc…4952backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5e52…9750backed No46c86.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+151.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x732a…55d3backed No30c81.21$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.853100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+309.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1dba…b40ebacked Yes24c74.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51d1…60f0backed No60c73.95$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2877…2f89backed Yes70c70.63$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x818f…638bbacked No39c64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.04333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8e…5e3fbacked No79c60.34$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2818…af7bbacked Yes50c59.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ee5…7e2fbacked Yes68c59.78$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66cd…7b7ebacked No74c45.7$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78bb…3f8bbacked No70c42.95$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No60c42.79$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x999d…4c45backed Yes61c42.34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes55c39.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.99911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b55…02f8backed No45c39.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f9b…435cbacked Yes68c39.46$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf133…9964backed No54c38.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd686…5c67backed Yes54c35.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+150%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e15…0e4bbacked Yes66c30.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b0…428dbacked No41c24.76$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+146.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a5…0825backed Yes70c22.93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6be…629ebacked No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6086…ffefbacked No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df1…d7fbbacked No76c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb81…d02abacked Yes70c18.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.