TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x35e2…3c92

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
91
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Movies, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 54 out of 100; worst AI at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT3138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+67%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$8.44
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+819.9%+$245.97
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$74.88
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.29
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.58
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$25
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+59.1%+$17.72
Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 57m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+47.1%+$9.41
"Nobody 2" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80–89%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$10.77
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $125-135m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $135-145m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be $37m or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.25
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross less than $140m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT+1,282.1%+$179.49
Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$40.99
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+376.2%+$158
Will 'Moana 2' gross more than $180m on 5-day opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST-100%-$91.39
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $61-70m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$11.02
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $105m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$50
Will 'Transformers One' gross less than $35m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2024, EDT-100%-$30
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2024, EDT+56.3%+$16.88
Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$28
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-49.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
X relaunches Vine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$55
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+39.2%+$101.4
Will A Minecraft Movie be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$17.22
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+53.5%+$32.07
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$89.79
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.11
Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$15.45
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will Apple invest in OpenAI in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+117%+$29.26
All 13 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2025, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.76
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$38
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+218.3%+$50.21
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$109.9
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$49.71
Jordan Bardella next Prime Minister of France?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Will the CDU/CSU receive more than 30% of votes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2024, EDT+69.5%+$20.85
Will Grune receive more than 14% of votes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2024, EDT+108.3%+$12.7
Will the SPD receive more than 15% of votes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2024, EDT+67.8%+$10.17
Will the AfD receive more than 16% of votes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$13
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2024, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2024, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+167.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+23%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+71.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Chess — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2024, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$35.9
NBA Play-In: Lakers vs Pelicansbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2024, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
$DJT market cap less than $8b on April 5? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2024, EDT+81.8%+$47.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+70.4%+$21.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.