Movies · resolved market
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d64ce9caf3dcf36a8958344f68af82aedfd8b63d1c9e7ea3db17bc3e830c400
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $217,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $226,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 46c | 14,255$6,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,529.59 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 58c | 12,903$7,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,482.79 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 6c | 11,156$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,539.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 64c | 11,052$7,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,944.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes | 13c | 6,259$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,464.62 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…8734backed Yes | 27c | 3,602$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,642.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,056$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,877.07 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 45c | 3,034$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,658.46 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 57c | 2,962$1,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,267.92 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 42c | 2,956$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700.08 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 45c | 2,777$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.24 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked Yes | 58c | 2,545$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.56 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 10c | 2,478$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,228.17 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 36c | 2,039$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.24 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 13c | 1,836$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.35 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 8c | 1,807$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.07 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed Yes | 7c | 1,718$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,598.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 23c | 1,700$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.8 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089a…5729backed Yes | 60c | 1,533$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 7c | 1,501$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,393.01 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 32c | 1,334$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.85 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…0331backed No | 8c | 1,278$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 7c | 1,186$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.35 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 2c | 1,100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 52c | 1,033$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.73 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked No | 2c | 1,011$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +303.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 14c | 999.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.83 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 64c | 999.98$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.09 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 4c | 999.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +216.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 23c | 969.79$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.78 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 9c | 937.46$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81c1…974cbacked Yes | 8c | 914.16$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 45c | 906.19$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe100…971abacked Yes | 8c | 829.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +296.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 64c | 810$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.12 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x288e…9ca7backed No | 30c | 796.99$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 771.93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.66 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…3a8cbacked Yes | 13c | 758.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.61 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 17c | 628.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.37 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 61c | 597.43$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 9c | 592.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.34 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9021…e568backed No | 7c | 539.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 7c | 521$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.77 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8555…4c4bbacked No | 4c | 502.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked No | 24c | 499.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 471.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.51 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…30b7backed No | 6c | 439.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 58c | 350$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.3 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 15c | 347$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 70c | 330.04$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…2264backed Yes | 7c | 299.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 54c | 295.89$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ca…e813backed Yes | 70c | 287.56$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…5b5dbacked No | 4c | 282.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 31c | 268$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.15 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…aab9backed Yes | 75c | 266.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd073…b757backed Yes | 57c | 262.71$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…63b9backed Yes | 8c | 256.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.98 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…7473backed Yes | 14c | 245.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.03 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…fc2abacked Yes | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e82…d977backed No | 10c | 226.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 7c | 208.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.06 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…09c6backed No | 49c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Yes | 7c | 193.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.49 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 10c | 193.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.01 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…2a22backed Yes | 74c | 190.47$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 53c | 189.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.38 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee04…c22bbacked Yes | 25c | 187.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.81 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf269…0460backed Yes | 10c | 186.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +386.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 73c | 180$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…ef78backed Yes | 16c | 175$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 30c | 168$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba5…4f56backed Yes | 6c | 166.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +222%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 13c | 160.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.63 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 8c | 159.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.99 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x575e…5b86backed Yes | 9c | 150.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.15 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…d9a3backed No | 47c | 150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc815…56b0backed Yes | 37c | 136.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…6987backed Yes | 15c | 133.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…df79backed Yes | 11c | 133.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +217.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 62c | 131.27$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcab…159cbacked Yes | 9c | 109.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +265.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1446…939abacked Yes | 70c | 98.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Yes | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…b177backed Yes | 18c | 74.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefa…fd4fbacked Yes | 52c | 73.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb130…6ee2backed Yes | 58c | 71.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e03…beafbacked Yes | 50c | 70.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 80c | 68.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…0d25backed Yes | 74c | 67.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce1…f735backed Yes | 26c | 62.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8820…5f95backed Yes | 35c | 62.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf696…e844backed No | 49c | 56.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c30…3651backed No | 32c | 55.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33cf…d71bbacked Yes | 20c | 49.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +145%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross less than $140m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross more than $170m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.