TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$217,896
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$226,474

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,896 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51fd…4272backed No46c14,255$6,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,529.5918719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes58c12,903$7,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,482.7916350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x1cab…6817backed Yes6c11,156$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,539.68933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+152.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes64c11,052$7,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,944.23728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-58.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes13c6,259$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,464.621442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a00…8734backed Yes27c3,602$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,642.55425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes6c3,056$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,877.073423.5%8 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x712f…9fe6backed Yes45c3,034$1,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,658.468633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b24…2e06backed Yes57c2,962$1,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.923633.3%12 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+29%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes42c2,956$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.0820049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No45c2,777$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.2418431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdaad…69ccbacked Yes58c2,545$1,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.561957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Yes10c2,478$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,228.171811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8085…ea17backed Yes36c2,039$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.244938.8%19 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes13c1,836$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,591.3516624.1%40 W · 126 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No8c1,807$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.07983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x746e…4238backed Yes7c1,718$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,598.41216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid+39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3826…84efbacked Yes23c1,700$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.87414.9%11 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x089a…5729backed Yes60c1,533$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes7c1,501$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,393.017735.1%27 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No32c1,334$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.857252.8%38 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4f7…0331backed No8c1,278$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes7c1,186$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.3526041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No2c1,100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.23013.3%4 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes52c1,033$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.7367232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc392…511bbacked No2c1,011$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.241127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+303.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes14c999.99$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.8332639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes64c999.98$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.0915059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked Yes4c999.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.97933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+216.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes23c969.79$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.781127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick19cpaid-12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes9c937.46$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85516614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81c1…974cbacked Yes8c914.16$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.161643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick25cpaid+124.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes45c906.19$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.41656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe100…971abacked Yes8c829.95$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+296.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf933…52fbbacked Yes64c810$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.1212240.2%49 W · 73 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x288e…9ca7backed No30c796.99$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c771.93$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.661,3938%111 W · 1,282 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x825e…3a8cbacked Yes13c758.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.61911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes17c628.99$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.372646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes61c597.43$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.131136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-46.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes9c592.74$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.345710.5%6 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9021…e568backed No7c539.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed Yes7c521$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.778536.5%31 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8555…4c4bbacked No4c502.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…a23ebacked No24c499.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-62.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes7c471.67$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.5119133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0840…30b7backed No6c439.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes58c350$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.319031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Yes15c347$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.04520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes70c330.04$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf901…2264backed Yes7c299.93$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.931050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+97.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd9e…3723backed Yes54c295.89$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.89633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6ca…e813backed Yes70c287.56$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.27450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…5b5dbacked No4c282.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes31c268$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.153941%16 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab5f…aab9backed Yes75c266.6$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.65850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd073…b757backed Yes57c262.71$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b3b…63b9backed Yes8c256.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.982828.6%8 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+61.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2430…7473backed Yes14c245.3$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.03812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8add…fc2abacked Yes50c240$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e82…d977backed No10c226.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked Yes7c208.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.069851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x648c…09c6backed No49c200$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.81258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…3c92backed Yes7c193.49$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.493138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+67%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x179e…ebe8backed Yes10c193.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.01726.9%5 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x476a…2a22backed Yes74c190.47$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.49580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Yes53c189.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.383023.3%7 W · 23 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-39.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xee04…c22bbacked Yes25c187.64$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.812931%9 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf269…0460backed Yes10c186.63$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+386.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c67…8b76backed Yes73c180$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.67030%21 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf397…ef78backed Yes16c175$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1471100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes30c168$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+46.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ba5…4f56backed Yes6c166.81$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.45520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+222%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes13c160.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.631936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid+8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes8c159.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.9917041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x575e…5b86backed Yes9c150.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.98540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick14cpaid+184.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes18c150$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.153622.2%8 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc20a…d9a3backed No47c150$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc815…56b0backed Yes37c136.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.31955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick34cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f78…6987backed Yes15c133.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.891010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0202…df79backed Yes11c133.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.46333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick5cpaid+217.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes62c131.27$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.52951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x501f…f746backed Yes72c130$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.14825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-67.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcab…159cbacked Yes9c109.79$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.78333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+265.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf85b…5663backed Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824050%20 W · 20 L+6.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+28.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1446…939abacked Yes70c98.7$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.13757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick71cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Yes68c90$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.122334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6e4…b177backed Yes18c74.92$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefa…fd4fbacked Yes52c73.8$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb130…6ee2backed Yes58c71.47$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e03…beafbacked Yes50c70.03$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43f8…2903backed Yes80c70$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.13145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes80c68.94$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.85848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3000…0d25backed Yes74c67.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdce1…f735backed Yes26c62.58$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+95.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8820…5f95backed Yes35c62.57$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+42.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf696…e844backed No49c56.83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c30…3651backed No32c55.11$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.89250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33cf…d71bbacked Yes20c49.09$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+145%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.