TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$824,027
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$293,766

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $824,027 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1cab…6817backed Yes1c153,552$1,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,527.13933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+152.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x545d…c122backed Yes0c73,000$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33b2…3d6fbacked Yes1c40,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201010%1 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18e…014abacked Yes0c24,980$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c22,986$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.621455.5%8 W · 137 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x368b…2458backed Yes0c20,558$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.01633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5303…d66ebacked Yes1c19,618$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x072a…7af9backed Yes2c16,069$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.8333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-50.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02b2…7ee8backed Yes0c14,286$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x179e…ebe8backed Yes1c13,814$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.24726.9%5 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes0c13,385$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed Yes0c11,491$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.088536.5%31 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc430…3c45backed Yes1c11,325$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0912…5739backed Yes4c10,722$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-67.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes0c9,761$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0632814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3516…05a0backed Yes0c9,593$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Yes3c9,466$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.98812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+48.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes2c8,137$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.722714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa12…e785backed Yes3c6,607$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.35520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3826…84efbacked Yes5c6,032$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.587414.9%11 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x365e…0bfcbacked Yes4c5,296$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-81%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb4c…33e9backed Yes2c5,093$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-69.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8bc…2eabbacked Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25130%0 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…a23ebacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-62.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c90…f36cbacked Yes1c4,688$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-44.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Yes4c3,000$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e20…fd40backed Yes2c2,868$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.07812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-55.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae6…8b76backed Yes1c2,863$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes29c2,716$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.5120049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b16…9a19backed Yes1c2,330$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2774…f0e9backed Yes1c2,262$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b24…2e06backed Yes15c2,111$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.373633.3%12 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+29%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe567…e4debacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102030%6 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick20cpaid-3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd14e…7e5fbacked Yes1c1,885$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.67812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes2c1,845$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.881435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-48.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…6e0bbacked Yes1c1,655$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes33c1,259$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.7532639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes14c1,221$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.6616614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93c2…29f9backed Yes3c1,200$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes29c1,194$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.181747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x416e…c3a6backed No62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3801100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffd…b3f8backed Yes38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd261…5c41backed Yes37c970$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8505…68cabacked Yes4c855.88$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes34c777$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.926132.8%20 W · 41 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ee…a97bbacked No63c740$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes14c705.39$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6318719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes13c697.19$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.16023.3%14 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6508…9579backed No62c660$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa034…32c3backed Yes38c635$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x19a3…09b0backed Yes7c616.39$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4570%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed3c…974fbacked No62c605$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb277…d809backed Yes5c589.08$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.45837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x712f…9fe6backed Yes33c588.89$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.788633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes22c575.99$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.216624.1%40 W · 126 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…6110backed Yes4c540.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-59.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2430…7473backed Yes3c536.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda0c…bd0bbacked Yes2c505.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7de…b802backed Yes13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6511836.4%43 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15013150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes36c500$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.51717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-58.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x079a…ee61backed Yes3c500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+32.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes14c489.71$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.816040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x746e…4238backed Yes25c484.92$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid+39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a61…e424backed Yes3c476.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-71%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66f2…a761backed Yes38c460$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes17c451$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2819031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes17c402.08$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3187033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Yes14c400$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c67…8b76backed Yes3c381.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.627030%21 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc46…b8a3backed No62c340$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…3c92backed Yes7c315.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.253138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+67%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd5c…e090backed No62c310$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1108…af34backed Yes3c301.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes14c268$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.73941%16 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes29c243$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4848414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2f20…438cbacked No63c240$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1a…2dc9backed Yes38c235$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No72c227$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4426041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x937f…982dbacked Yes37c210$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No58c210$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.857252.8%38 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c7b…a692backed Yes38c210$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes12c176.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c3e…0183backed Yes38c175$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38d…6c36backed Yes32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf933…52fbbacked Yes18c150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.512240.2%49 W · 73 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fb6…777bbacked No71c141.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x243f…5a02backed No75c110$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes17c105.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181286.3%8 W · 120 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-77.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes19c104.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.021,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125710.5%6 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-8.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc2cf…3ff1backed Yes15c99.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.974623.9%11 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b3b…63b9backed Yes47c81.3$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382828.6%8 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+61.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked Yes19c80.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.23933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+216.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bae…d5e8backed Yes38c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x97f3…c807backed Yes23c74.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x238c…5c20backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4616…e881backed Yes31c63.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204833.3%16 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.