Movies · resolved market
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63604a9de2ac80a9ba661c7660034985d06f91ea557dc712814a76f0633b3e9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $824,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $293,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $824,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 1c | 153,552$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…c122backed Yes | 0c | 73,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b2…3d6fbacked Yes | 1c | 40,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18e…014abacked Yes | 0c | 24,980$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 22,986$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.62 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…2458backed Yes | 0c | 20,558$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…d66ebacked Yes | 1c | 19,618$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…7af9backed Yes | 2c | 16,069$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b2…7ee8backed Yes | 0c | 14,286$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 1c | 13,814$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.24 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 0c | 13,385$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 0c | 11,491$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…3c45backed Yes | 1c | 11,325$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0912…5739backed Yes | 4c | 10,722$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 9,761$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3516…05a0backed Yes | 0c | 9,593$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 3c | 9,466$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 2c | 8,137$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.72 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa12…e785backed Yes | 3c | 6,607$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 5c | 6,032$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.58 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365e…0bfcbacked Yes | 4c | 5,296$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -81%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…33e9backed Yes | 2c | 5,093$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…2eabbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…f36cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,688$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 2c | 2,868$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae6…8b76backed Yes | 1c | 2,863$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 29c | 2,716$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.51 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…9a19backed Yes | 1c | 2,330$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2774…f0e9backed Yes | 1c | 2,262$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 15c | 2,111$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.37 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…e4debacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd14e…7e5fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,885$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 2c | 1,845$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…6e0bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,655$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 33c | 1,259$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.75 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 14c | 1,221$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.66 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 29c | 1,194$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…c3a6backed No | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…b3f8backed Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd261…5c41backed Yes | 37c | 970$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8505…68cabacked Yes | 4c | 855.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 34c | 777$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.92 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ee…a97bbacked No | 63c | 740$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 14c | 705.39$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 13c | 697.19$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…9579backed No | 62c | 660$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa034…32c3backed Yes | 38c | 635$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a3…09b0backed Yes | 7c | 616.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3c…974fbacked No | 62c | 605$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed Yes | 5c | 589.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 33c | 588.89$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.78 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 22c | 575.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.2 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…6110backed Yes | 4c | 540.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…7473backed Yes | 3c | 536.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0c…bd0bbacked Yes | 2c | 505.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 36c | 500$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…ee61backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 14c | 489.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed Yes | 25c | 484.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a61…e424backed Yes | 3c | 476.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -71%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…a761backed Yes | 38c | 460$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 17c | 451$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.28 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 402.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 3c | 381.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc46…b8a3backed No | 62c | 340$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Yes | 7c | 315.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…e090backed No | 62c | 310$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1108…af34backed Yes | 3c | 301.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 14c | 268$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 243$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f20…438cbacked No | 63c | 240$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1a…2dc9backed Yes | 38c | 235$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 72c | 227$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…982dbacked Yes | 37c | 210$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 58c | 210$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.85 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…a692backed Yes | 38c | 210$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes | 12c | 176.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3e…0183backed Yes | 38c | 175$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38d…6c36backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb6…777bbacked No | 71c | 141.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…5a02backed No | 75c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 17c | 105.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 104.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…3ff1backed Yes | 15c | 99.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…63b9backed Yes | 47c | 81.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 19c | 80.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +216.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bae…d5e8backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…c807backed Yes | 23c | 74.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238c…5c20backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed Yes | 31c | 63.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross less than $140m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross more than $170m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.