TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9c67…8b76

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
149
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 54 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST7030%21 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 70 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$46.55
"The Long Walk" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 90 and 91?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT+119.2%+$40.24
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $67m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$457Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$457.36
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $80m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$468Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$467.56
Will "The Roses" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $6m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT+60.7%+$24.7
Will "Caught Stealing" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $8.5m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.76
"The Roses" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 60 and 64?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$249.86
Will "Honey Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $3m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$341Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$340.53
Will "Honey Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $3-3.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT+150%+$60
Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $8.5-10m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$26.95
"Alien: Earth" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80 and 89?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$244.44
"Alien: Earth" Rotten Tomatoes score is 90 or higher?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$212.09
Will "Freakier Friday" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $29m and $34m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.15
Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $17m and $20m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.94
"The Naked Gun" Rotten Tomatoes score is 90% or higher?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,321Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,321.38
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $125-135m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$489.65
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $115-125m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT+1,291.2%+$945.64
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $135-145m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.52
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $115m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.42
Will "Eddington" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $6.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $9-11m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$98.78
Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $13m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.78
Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11-13m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT+60.9%+$153.18
Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $9m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.1
Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,110Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT+76.7%+$851.4
Showing 25 of 70 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Sep 26, 2025, EDT2619.2%5 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.52
Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$52.2
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT+1,566.7%+$188
Will Elon tweet 525–549 times August 15–August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Will Elon tweet 550–574 times August 15–August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet 500–524 times August 15–August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.11
Will Elon tweet 455–469 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.22
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$41
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+488.2%+$249
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.1
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.6
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.04
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.62
Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$48
Will Zohran Mamdani tweet 40 or more times Tuesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$218Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+45%+$98.12
Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 13–20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT+426.3%+$202.5
Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 13–20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.97
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 23–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.18
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 23–30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.43
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 10, 2025, EDT1625%4 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on August 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$8.25
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on August 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$108
Will Trump say "Million" "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$720Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+54.5%+$392.65
Trump approval Up or Down this week?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$151.9
Trump approval >45% on August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.43
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on July 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.45
Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.0% on July 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$148.84
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.7
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.4
Will Trump's approval rating be 47.0% or higher on June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.38
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.23
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on May 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$113
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on May 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+195.1%+$198.46
Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on May 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.93
All 16 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$878Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$878.34
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$44
Russia announces air truce by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$102
Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$144.34
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 15+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$134.94
Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$279.4
Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Mineral" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$184.36
Will Trump say "Marco" or "Rubio" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$69
Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$114.4
Will Trump say "Putin" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+39.2%+$112.57
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+100%+$106
Will Trump say "Pakistan" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$217Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+146%+$317.2
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$202.11
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 8, 2025, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 31, 2025, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+132.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 16, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Obama congratulate Mamdani by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.65
Will a Democrat win Texas US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Aug 13, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Taylor Swift say "Eras Tour" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT+30.5%+$11.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$53
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.