Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf611cd2d7c9c270da6dbf0023bc6ead6cd29402f788170d23807336f5a78500
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 71c | 2,865$2,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.77 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…bb91backed No | 25c | 2,420$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf82…c406backed No | 25c | 2,147$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 73c | 2,000$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.98 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…44d2backed No | 32c | 1,886$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 14c | 1,793$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.03 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 76c | 1,470$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.86 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…2f85backed No | 26c | 1,154$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Yes | 65c | 999.97$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 67c | 825.55$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.29 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56ab…9c67backed No | 28c | 792.24$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…d582backed No | 25c | 600$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 599.99$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 22c | 555.95$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.31 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 23c | 549.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 71c | 511.33$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.27 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 76c | 463$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.61 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8beb…fe0bbacked No | 23c | 446.27$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…34e0backed No | 32c | 429.22$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 21c | 427.8$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…fc2abacked Yes | 75c | 400$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc9…0101backed No | 26c | 391.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 80c | 374.51$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…bf19backed Yes | 73c | 357.79$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0615…2368backed No | 29c | 348.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 76c | 340$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…7280backed No | 24c | 336.21$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 79c | 317.97$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.26 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed No | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4003…5073backed Yes | 75c | 297.16$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 77c | 267.16$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 34c | 263.23$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4332…975dbacked Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b0…5f03backed No | 41c | 242.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 78c | 242.06$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 78c | 240.64$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…53ebbacked Yes | 80c | 216.03$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 76c | 215.94$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed No | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +132.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e34…c674backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 73c | 198.26$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 33c | 195.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed No | 37c | 191.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed No | 27c | 189.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked No | 22c | 180$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0af…e499backed Yes | 76c | 172.72$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 19c | 163.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 157.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 74c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed No | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…e582backed Yes | 74c | 149.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 76c | 149.98$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed No | 19c | 149.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 74c | 142$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb78…3a24backed No | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +225.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d07…293fbacked No | 23c | 137.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2398…3f89backed No | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc047…fecbbacked Yes | 76c | 124.26$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…5703backed No | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 20c | 104.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 22c | 103.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…b90fbacked No | 31c | 103.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…1d90backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc515…ac8dbacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff07…439abacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…7b42backed Yes | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb030…9afdbacked Yes | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…b725backed No | 33c | 97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes | 67c | 97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…2ff6backed No | 22c | 94.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed No | 27c | 92.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d30…2690backed No | 22c | 90.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca5…701abacked No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x150b…99d4backed No | 23c | 86.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…7e09backed No | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…0f9abacked No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac6…d0b8backed No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747e…a528backed No | 35c | 82.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8316…457bbacked No | 23c | 77.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe644…6b8ebacked No | 26c | 76.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19fc…17aabacked No | 29c | 75.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5013…1f71backed No | 27c | 70.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9feb…bbc3backed No | 34c | 67.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 75c | 64.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a61…a2e4backed No | 30c | 63.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…5903backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…e2ddbacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment / Unemployment" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Spike" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Step/Stepping Down" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.