Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba2ed61cc42be73b73afb2abcb9cc504ef3d260468c5bf1cb86a3a2e6793942b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e5b…d4ecbacked Yes | 9c | 6,612$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,985.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +111%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 69c | 5,970$4,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +431.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 17c | 5,333$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.64 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed6…6a8dbacked Yes | 18c | 3,933$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,232.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…b04abacked Yes | 14c | 2,990$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,572.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +616%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09c…f710backed No | 80c | 2,735$2,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 14c | 2,600$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,224 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 13c | 2,580$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,256.17 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 5c | 2,499$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,379.36 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Yes | 21c | 2,364$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 14c | 2,150$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,855.49 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…f38bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,061$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +369.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 12c | 1,963$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,732.11 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 75c | 1,848$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.23 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…c011backed Yes | 11c | 1,847$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,647.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b8…832abacked Yes | 12c | 1,712$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +328%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5a…4b33backed Yes | 13c | 1,634$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.16 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…44d2backed Yes | 34c | 1,176$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 13c | 1,076$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.69 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…42efbacked Yes | 11c | 1,019$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +773.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.15 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226d…f49ebacked Yes | 13c | 999.97$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948c…42eebacked Yes | 16c | 977.23$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +197.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 16c | 976.71$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.71 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…9889backed Yes | 16c | 937.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed Yes | 14c | 900$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 14c | 832.5$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…afc7backed Yes | 15c | 795.03$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +575.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…9a1ebacked Yes | 15c | 785.71$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 7c | 750$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…45cdbacked Yes | 13c | 747.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +333.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 718.9$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.1 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…5c9dbacked Yes | 12c | 700$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…2ff6backed Yes | 10c | 696.48$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…4d0cbacked Yes | 15c | 672.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 8c | 599.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.99 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c6…0ea4backed Yes | 18c | 597.39$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +184.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x642a…994bbacked Yes | 11c | 549.61$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x106c…474cbacked Yes | 14c | 547.15$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +599.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 11c | 545$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a52…c45cbacked Yes | 9c | 540.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +980.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0615…2368backed Yes | 19c | 531.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…7e0bbacked Yes | 10c | 526.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Yes | 16c | 472.86$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +143.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 15c | 456.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 13c | 453.85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.85 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked Yes | 15c | 450$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…769fbacked Yes | 13c | 444.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…3a9fbacked Yes | 14c | 404.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde02…4263backed Yes | 17c | 394.44$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…17fbbacked Yes | 14c | 392.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 14c | 390$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…d8d3backed Yes | 17c | 371.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +265.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…c364backed Yes | 15c | 364.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c3…a800backed Yes | 19c | 359.02$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a0…1680backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +297.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 18c | 333$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +9.2wins | +0.44per pick | 14cpaid | +420%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 14c | 310$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.2 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 14c | 301$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.89 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbc…799fbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +239%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 52c | 288$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +215.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…a732backed Yes | 14c | 287.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 18c | 277$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…b808backed Yes | 19c | 267.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…f087backed Yes | 16c | 259.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +534.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed7a…c24bbacked Yes | 16c | 247.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 12c | 244.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.37 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 17c | 238.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 229$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.68 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc113…692fbacked Yes | 9c | 224.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x846c…11c2backed Yes | 11c | 223.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…30babacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 16c | 220.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed Yes | 15c | 220$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa40f…b0ebbacked Yes | 13c | 193.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe219…d8afbacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 15c | 186.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…1db9backed Yes | 14c | 184.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.46 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…a80ebacked Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca5…701abacked Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 67c | 171.38$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 18c | 164.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…14d2backed Yes | 12c | 163.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +213.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb78…3a24backed Yes | 15c | 162.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +225.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…216dbacked Yes | 18c | 153.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +185.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…58a2backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf6…8145backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e0…6c39backed Yes | 11c | 153.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…710fbacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747e…a528backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8548…813abacked Yes | 10c | 141.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +940.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18e0…d024backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment / Unemployment" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Spike" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Step/Stepping Down" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.