Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Employment / Unemployment" 20+ times during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b25f4f8e6849281120e22da1a77d991250f0590b77b8a076ed4abe697a039aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 74c | 2,493$1,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.24 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9f4abacked No | 23c | 2,000$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 73c | 1,927$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.16 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Yes | 72c | 1,736$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.04 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 72c | 1,200$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 26c | 1,088$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.92 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 77c | 1,057$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.14 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 23c | 999.97$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked No | 33c | 982.79$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed Yes | 73c | 835.02$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.91 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 25c | 749.93$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.99 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 27c | 687.96$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.9 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 73c | 600.25$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.07 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 19c | 539.69$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.54 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…9c77backed No | 25c | 395.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 27c | 366.29$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 30c | 330.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed No | 25c | 300$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 77c | 298.84$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 74c | 217.86$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 73c | 201.61$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 77c | 185.96$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 28c | 175.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 71c | 160$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 76c | 157$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed No | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked Yes | 76c | 90.04$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 14c | 89.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 29c | 76.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 78c | 73.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 76c | 71.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 26c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe219…d8afbacked Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 75c | 61.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…5903backed No | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed No | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed No | 33c | 45.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf812…494bbacked No | 25c | 44.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc3…262ebacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 27c | 38.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2f…a397backed Yes | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 63c | 32.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…219dbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e74…1165backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff94…c347backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…1743backed Yes | 73c | 19.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…cf89backed Yes | 77c | 16.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 73c | 15.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Employment / Unemployment" 20+ times during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Spike" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Step/Stepping Down" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.