TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x22cc…ef97

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
289
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Middle East, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 62 out of 100; worst AI at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST7129.6%21 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 71 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$41
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$121.63
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$280.34
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will Trump be impeached in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55.91
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$111.81
Will Eric Adams join Trump administration by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+200.6%+$265.59
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$16.74
Will Trump say "Pacific" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$32.55
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 4+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.78
Will Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.57
Will Trump say "Mineral" or "Earth" 2+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.63
Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.8
Will Trump say Hezbollah during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.18
Will Trump say Thousand / Million / Billion 10+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$200.07
Will Trump say Biden 3+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$344.1
Will Trump say Israel 7+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+56.2%+$94
Will Trump say Qatar during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$21.67
Will Trump say Bibi during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$12.99
Kash Patel out by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.92
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$116.9
Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$206.08
Showing 25 of 71 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST6025%15 W · 45 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 60 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$61.34
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+48.2%+$7.74
Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$28.05
Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.4
Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.36
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.96
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.16
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.35
Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 20+ times during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.43
Will Powell say "Anchored" 3+ times during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$59.38
Will Powell say "Median" during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.45
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.43
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+368.1%+$147.84
Will Powell say "Recession" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$203.61
Will Powell say "Step/Stepping Down" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$106.59
Will Powell say "Employment / Unemployment" 20+ times during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$102.54
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.16
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$120.65
Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.23
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.19
Will Powell say "Obvious" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+196.4%+$90.88
Will Powell say "Downbeat" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$366.08
Will Powell say "Recession" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$65.66
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.16
Showing 25 of 60 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3718.9%7 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-56.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$106.23
Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$69.79
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40.16
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$58
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$112.92
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+240.8%+$343.53
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump say "Democrat" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+65.7%+$26.18
Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$20.46
Will Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+150%+$19.8
Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.05
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.44
Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.56
Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.74
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.51
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Russia announces air truce by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$38
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$196
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$86
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$302.97
Trump announces withdrawal of U.S. troops from Warsaw Pact country before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$215.46
Will Trump visit Russia before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$274Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$273.51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$110.76
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT3158.1%18 W · 13 L+6.3wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+59.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
Middle East — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+400%+$40
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+50.8%+$6.61
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+203%+$67
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$66
Will Donald Trump say "Hottest" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$10.2
Israel strikes Iran by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.29
Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" 5+ times during Egypt summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$9.79
Will Trump say "Smart" or "High IQ" during Egypt summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.08
Will Trump say "Reconstruction" during Egypt summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.12
Will Trump say "October 7th" 4+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Autopen" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
Will Trump say "Hottest" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
Will Netanyahu say "Goon" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+102%+$202
Will Netanyahu say "Iran" 25+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$136.08
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+225%+$299.06
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$87.6
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+217.5%+$438.4
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+234.3%+$70.29
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.8
U.S. military action against Iran before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+99.6%+$110.78
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$16
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT+110.5%+$214.33
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT2828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canada recession before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$29
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$29.07
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+525%+$138.29
Will the next Pope be from Europe?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$42.84
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.66
Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.76
Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.76
Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$102.82
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$200.95
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$205.41
Will Poilievre say "Elon" or "Musk" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$101.15
Will Carney say "Immigration" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.76
Trudeau no confidence motion passes before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.7
Trump tariffs on Canada in effect by May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST+186.9%+$379.77
Will Grünen win the most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$100
X banned in Brazil by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$204
Will National Rally win 175-199 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2024, EDT+99.6%+$17.47
Will National Rally win less than 175 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2024, EDT-100%-$17.53
Will National Rally win 200-224 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2024, EDT-100%-$17.85
Will Saeed Jalili be the next President of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$68.24
Will another person be the next President of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2024, EDT+266.8%+$29.5
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf be the next President of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2024, EDT+96.1%+$31.36
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2010%2 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.20per pick30cpaid-78.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
AI — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$44
Will Sam Altman say "Sora" 5+ times during TBPN appearance on October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.6
Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 5+ times during TBPN appearance on October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.6
Will Sam Altman say "Trump" during TBPN appearance on October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.1
Will Sam Altman say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during TBPN appearance on October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Sam Altman say "GPT" 7+ times during TBPN appearance on October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$17.51
Will anyone say "SaaS momentum" during Oracle's 1st Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Announcement?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.1
Will anyone say "Cloud backlog" during Oracle's 1st Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Announcement?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.1
Will anyone say "Healthcare AI" during Oracle's 1st Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Announcement?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.1
Will anyone say or "Artificial Intelligence" during Apple launch event on September 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.44
Will anyone say "Revolutionary" during Apple launch event on September 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.44
Will anyone say "iPhone" 100+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.79
Will anyone say "iPhone" 50+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.98
Will anyone say "Camera" 5+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.98
Will anyone say "Apple" 50+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.98
Will anyone say "Next Generation" during Apple launch event on September 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.92
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$255.91
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.08
Elon Musk bans Apple devices at his companies?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$29.3
All 20 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 3, 2025, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.22per pick34cpaid+137.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+656.5%+$85.35
Will anyone say "Public transport" 3+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$7.92
Will anyone say "Rent Control" or "Rent Controlled" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+455.6%+$49.9
Will anyone say "Genocide" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$42.24
Will anyone say "Inflation" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+316.7%+$75.23
Will anyone say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.16
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$100.05
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$108.9
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$99.96
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+91.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+65.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-49.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Aug 26, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Sep 8, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT+132.2%+$196.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Sep 13, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump tweet 20-24 times this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2024, EDT+96.1%+$14.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump say "Trudeau" during Super Bowl pregame interview?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$99.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2024 September hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$103.18
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.