Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x360cfe12c9b5a8c51beb9b36e412b6261ca4ea0169deb38dee34af038b46f162
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 50c | 2,822$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 49c | 1,568$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.3 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…8f82backed No | 55c | 809.36$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…3769backed Yes | 46c | 570.38$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 53c | 559.3$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 37c | 531.94$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.64 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1603…301cbacked Yes | 52c | 520.22$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 49c | 452.28$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.23 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 48c | 399.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 44c | 399.68$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.4 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed Yes | 52c | 331.82$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.36 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 62c | 328.83$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.23 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…88a5backed No | 62c | 322.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 63c | 300$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 35c | 283.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 50c | 273.95$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.08 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 48c | 249.35$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.62 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 51c | 229.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f30…12c3backed No | 50c | 213$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf034…2ce6backed No | 49c | 209.78$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 50c | 205.78$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.65 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Yes | 47c | 205.53$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb67a…913cbacked No | 51c | 202.31$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 39c | 201.32$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcde0…267dbacked No | 9c | 200.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 49c | 191.85$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…ae82backed Yes | 52c | 187.42$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +246.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2634…f5c9backed Yes | 55c | 184.09$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…664dbacked No | 62c | 161.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…42fbbacked Yes | 49c | 159.01$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…138bbacked No | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 59c | 137.29$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.63 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed No | 39c | 136.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 50c | 135$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked No | 42c | 125.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1240…6419backed Yes | 60c | 116.39$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…9c60backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa582…8ec0backed No | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 52c | 95.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18e3…7065backed No | 57c | 93.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 46c | 89.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b3…88edbacked Yes | 73c | 87.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 46c | 86.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…c623backed Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 48c | 75.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0107…6a95backed Yes | 55c | 72.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed No | 54c | 72.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 39c | 66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 44c | 65.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked No | 47c | 60.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…e279backed Yes | 50c | 60.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f4…8697backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a27…45babacked Yes | 64c | 59.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…61edbacked No | 53c | 56.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ba…ad90backed No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b42…92a1backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked No | 55c | 49.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 55c | 44.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef3…2cd8backed Yes | 46c | 43.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31f…8898backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09cf…e8f8backed Yes | 50c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc3…5a00backed Yes | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…dd30backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab58…b07dbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…8de7backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +139.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x242a…1a12backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…c971backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52c2…65a0backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…d27fbacked Yes | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 54c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…496fbacked Yes | 52c | 38.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ce…a3efbacked No | 53c | 37.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d0…4201backed No | 56c | 35.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…1e3abacked Yes | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…d65abacked No | 57c | 34.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 47c | 34.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 47c | 32.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 51c | 32.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2162…9287backed Yes | 48c | 31.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…8e02backed Yes | 58c | 30.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…ff7bbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…a00cbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38e…3b9abacked No | 53c | 28.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed No | 53c | 28.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef5…453bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68b3…f687backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…9949backed Yes | 57c | 19.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…a1e2backed Yes | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf194…f48fbacked Yes | 55c | 18.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Democrat" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Nine Wars" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Laggard" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Tomahawk" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sanction" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Stupid" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Suit" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.