Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "Sanction" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x369ce30471a39f5fb4c943034617957a9cd6522b2e8ddc1524e4bc91f5b857d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0446…0094backed Yes | 73c | 275.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 27c | 248.57$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.46 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 71c | 230$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 46c | 199.96$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.44 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 38c | 195$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…3769backed Yes | 27c | 161.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 40c | 154$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76be…6718backed Yes | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40ae…33e4backed Yes | 16c | 129.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 33c | 123.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa367…1a68backed Yes | 9c | 121$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 75c | 119.01$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1603…301cbacked Yes | 61c | 117.64$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 30c | 112.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked Yes | 68c | 112.17$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…6ff9backed No | 40c | 105$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5488…4a9ebacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e3…cad2backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 34c | 99.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 69c | 97.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 37c | 96.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 50c | 85.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -6.8wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc3…5a00backed Yes | 63c | 79.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 53c | 77.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c1…21aabacked Yes | 65c | 76.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…c623backed No | 47c | 69.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 44c | 60.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 40c | 59.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 38c | 52.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 34c | 51.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1892…b299backed No | 42c | 45.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…db3dbacked Yes | 56c | 44.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed No | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…4d9ebacked Yes | 59c | 32.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc51…2bedbacked Yes | 61c | 32.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Yes | 55c | 32.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…fc09backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -77%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b93…9fbebacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4c…1254backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed No | 68c | 24.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b48…35d0backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Sanction" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Democrat" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Nine Wars" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Laggard" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Tomahawk" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Stupid" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Suit" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.