Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde81a38cd6fc5a8ae5adda83c3f7d42e8544f71c6ae7e77ec8bf7038bef1b7ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 2c | 6,303$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.24 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 3c | 5,879$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,646$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 3,805$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 3,441$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…9889backed Yes | 4c | 2,527$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…fc09backed Yes | 4c | 2,337$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -77%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40ae…33e4backed Yes | 1c | 2,315$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca0…140ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,002$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6224…16efbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,733$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…513fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,510$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,011$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 2c | 1,001$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…a4e0backed Yes | 4c | 996.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…5df4backed Yes | 2c | 861.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…8b4fbacked Yes | 2c | 820.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…4e61backed Yes | 5c | 802.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 2c | 797.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6736…058cbacked Yes | 4c | 797.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da9…abf8backed Yes | 3c | 721.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ba…462ebacked Yes | 6c | 682.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…1aadbacked Yes | 5c | 680$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…7791backed Yes | 4c | 671.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f9…8356backed Yes | 4c | 646.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…dfdebacked Yes | 3c | 606.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…ba6dbacked Yes | 3c | 577.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…842fbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…496fbacked Yes | 4c | 477.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd330…3e50backed Yes | 4c | 340$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d3…8e0dbacked Yes | 5c | 326.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0f…3bbabacked Yes | 4c | 296.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa582…8ec0backed Yes | 7c | 291.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Democrat" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Nine Wars" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Laggard" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Tomahawk" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sanction" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Stupid" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Suit" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.