Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Tomahawk" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bbee8a85f2473ccf3bf28aa92156eeae1a07f18174affd3f256f15c7abc6473
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d29…1aadbacked No | 2c | 5,670$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed Yes | 71c | 5,573$3,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.11 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcde0…267dbacked No | 1c | 4,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 1c | 3,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.28per pick | 14cpaid | +203.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 30c | 2,456$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.23 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 72c | 1,724$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.43 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed No | 29c | 1,410$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 30c | 1,405$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.86 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 24c | 799.97$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 26c | 741.76$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.5 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 28c | 713.59$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.48 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 28c | 700.24$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.23 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 71c | 643.61$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.46 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1710…3344backed No | 32c | 609.17$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.77 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 32c | 600$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.57 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 68c | 579.99$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.9 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 73c | 522$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed No | 30c | 367.09$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…8624backed No | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 68c | 335.85$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.95 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No | 31c | 328.07$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986a…1af9backed No | 34c | 323.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 69c | 310.71$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 29c | 301.82$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.55 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 68c | 292$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 30c | 262.35$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 252.44$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…fc09backed Yes | 72c | 248.63$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -77%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 68c | 245.32$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 67c | 219.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed No | 32c | 216$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0104…530ebacked Yes | 72c | 194.72$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 32c | 171.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 31c | 163.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -6.8wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c4…812fbacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 51cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…d0edbacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…a4e0backed Yes | 71c | 141.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…b13abacked Yes | 73c | 137.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 28c | 118.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa201…4dfdbacked Yes | 77c | 117.53$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 72c | 114.28$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed No | 23c | 105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d13…c3dcbacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…138bbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b9c6backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ac…ba11backed No | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 67c | 98.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…a2d3backed Yes | 71c | 98.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f92…94cebacked No | 29c | 98.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…119bbacked Yes | 77c | 89.37$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 25c | 79.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76be…6718backed Yes | 78c | 76.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bea…6cc3backed No | 29c | 71.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed No | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…c623backed Yes | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…8e02backed No | 31c | 61.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdb…9c5cbacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 18c | 58.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34e8…1e4cbacked Yes | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 25c | 56.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b93…9fbebacked Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…39ecbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1091…a259backed No | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…7155backed Yes | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7e…638dbacked Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…caebbacked Yes | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc18…8809backed Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…7010backed Yes | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed Yes | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 57cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff6…7c5cbacked Yes | 70c | 31.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce5…5cb9backed Yes | 74c | 31.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe79c…0b2abacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…5dc5backed Yes | 69c | 28.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -84%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…087fbacked Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be6…0517backed Yes | 71c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0159…3f26backed Yes | 73c | 27.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked Yes | 69c | 26.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf194…f48fbacked Yes | 70c | 25.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4c…1254backed Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b8…b6dabacked Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…2670backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…c971backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…ae19backed Yes | 76c | 19.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb983…74fabacked Yes | 70c | 19.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a37…b78fbacked Yes | 71c | 16.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Tomahawk" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Democrat" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Nine Wars" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Laggard" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sanction" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Stupid" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Suit" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.