Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "Suit" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x682d545acd46ecaf5d332def50e0b2754c379282d0e179611f8bb5e91cefb1da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 75c | 1,300$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 3c | 641.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…8df4backed Yes | 25c | 417.45$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…a4e0backed Yes | 25c | 400.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…2b76backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 79c | 361$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 79c | 332.75$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.27 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1603…301cbacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 75c | 222$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed No | 71c | 212.24$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…fc09backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -77%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 21c | 182.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 72c | 150.48$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 22c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7014…41eebacked Yes | 28c | 116.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccb…e4eabacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1f…6823backed Yes | 28c | 95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 78c | 82.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb053…121abacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 28c | 68.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 72c | 67.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec0f…3bbabacked Yes | 25c | 61.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82c1…21aabacked Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…fdd3backed Yes | 29c | 50.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 73c | 50.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadcb…4b08backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…c623backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaf…8e75backed Yes | 27c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 22c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…1369backed Yes | 24c | 43.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18e3…7065backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 67c | 28.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…dd30backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03ee…96a0backed Yes | 54c | 21.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15bb…9c6dbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Suit" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Democrat" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Nine Wars" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Laggard" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Tomahawk" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sanction" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Stupid" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.