Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "Mineral" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73e322c5e10daf884b46d0d7ca115ae7d272e932b0bfdf40ff4d8825caf532d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 67c | 1,111$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.38 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…ff75backed Yes | 33c | 1,069$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +204.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…c051backed Yes | 34c | 367.85$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 32c | 366.11$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.51 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da9…abf8backed Yes | 34c | 361.16$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 66c | 265$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.55 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 66c | 229.97$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.48 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 70c | 223.07$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 30c | 186.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.82 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 25c | 167.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.1 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 64c | 155.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 67c | 153.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2676…7b08backed Yes | 34c | 142.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 69c | 130$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 68c | 125$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…5df4backed Yes | 36c | 123.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 34c | 123.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 102.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ee…96a0backed Yes | 36c | 101.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 37c | 93.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…7155backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 60c | 81.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -8.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 63c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 31c | 79.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…dd30backed No | 79c | 76.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 43c | 74.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…9a43backed Yes | 57c | 74.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -6.8wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…9949backed No | 73c | 68.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 65c | 67.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c4…812fbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 51cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0107…6a95backed No | 69c | 58.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb053…121abacked Yes | 36c | 55.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…d5adbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…c623backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b42…92a1backed No | 70c | 43.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed No | 64c | 42.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…9017backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…fdd3backed Yes | 36c | 41.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 35.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7014…41eebacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…43dcbacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…96eabacked Yes | 37c | 29.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31f…8898backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed No | 72c | 27.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a27…45babacked No | 71c | 21.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…42fbbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Democrat" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Nine Wars" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Laggard" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Tomahawk" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sanction" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Stupid" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Suit" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.