TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5e73…6697

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
753
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: AI, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category AI at 59 out of 100; worst NFL at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT19639.8%78 W · 118 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 196 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.27
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$3,552Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,551.62
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+132.2%+$61.79
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.39
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$297.6
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$138
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+150%+$60
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+87.7%+$57.14
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$46
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.89
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+139.5%+$122.91
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$339Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+55.6%+$188.82
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,462Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+45.1%+$1,110.33
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,076Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,076.12
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.7
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+280.8%+$737.42
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+444%+$1,067.92
Will Trump publicly praise Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$70.13
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$193.05
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$977Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$977.31
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$79
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,414Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+107.2%+$2,586.35
Showing 25 of 196 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT19348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 193 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ghislaine Maxwell Testify to Congress about Epstein?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+140.5%+$136.49
Will Ex-Prince Andrew Testify to Congress about Epstein?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+41.8%+$59
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$708Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$708.26
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$503Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$502.68
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$3,384Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+70.6%+$2,387.32
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.5
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 27-May 3 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$357Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+77.4%+$276.5
Will the DHS shutdown end between May 18-24 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$695Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+28.1%+$195.19
Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+37%+$54
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+413.1%+$738.26
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,347Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,347.33
Will the DHS shutdown last 48 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$47.37
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.2
Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+48.1%+$98
Tony Gonzalez out as US Rep by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will the DHS shutdown last 44 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$479Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+69.6%+$333.05
Will the Department of Homeland Security receive full-year funding by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$847Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+31.6%+$267.34
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$339Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+99.4%+$337.34
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$471Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+45.3%+$213.65
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$529Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$529.03
Will the government shutdown last 21 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$36
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+33.5%+$50.2
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$9,546Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$9,546.23
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$45.6
Showing 25 of 193 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT7844.9%35 W · 43 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 78 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.95
Will Trump admin declassify foreign election interference files by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$217.98
Will Trump accuse Iran of election interference by July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$30
Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$347Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+59.4%+$205.69
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$409.72
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$315.84
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$2,862Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+245.5%+$7,025.58
Will Russia join the Board of Peace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.79
Will Germany join the Board of Peace?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$513Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25.4%+$130.01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$413Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$412.89
More EU sanctions on Russia by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$63
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$74.99
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$73.61
Will Zelenskyy attend the World Economic Forum?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$135.86
Will Trump announce a cut to U.S. military or intelligence aid to Ukraine by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Andrii Yermak arrested by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+176.6%+$112.35
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$78.85
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$281Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.3%+$119
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$20.99
Adam Schiff federally charged by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.6%+$16.8
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24.9
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.26
Showing 25 of 78 picks, newest first.
Commoditieslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT6033.3%20 W · 40 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 60 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of August 10 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.75
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of August 10 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.75
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$4,150Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,150.48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$6,798Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+89.8%+$6,107.42
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$24,138Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+32%+$7,733.52
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$39
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$76
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$68.99
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.26
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,675Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,675.12
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$856Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+116.1%+$994.23
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$246.21
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$521Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$521.5
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.2
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$144
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$662Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$661.87
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$798Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+52.2%+$416.24
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10,782Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+98.2%+$10,591.88
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+192.9%+$46.1
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+141.1%+$99.5
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,261Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,260.64
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$561Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$561.23
Showing 25 of 60 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT5747.4%27 W · 30 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 57 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will three people dissent the July Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$220
Will Warsh say "Iran" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$41.78
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,813Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,812.67
Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$639Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+64.3%+$411.3
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,081Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$484.98
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,215Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+27%+$328.33
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.5% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.72
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$593Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+111.7%+$662.22
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,195Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$513.36
Will Christopher Waller dissent the next Fed Decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$74
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$51.07
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$42.06
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$73.14
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$490Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+74.2%+$363.78
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$374Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$374.33
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+746.3%+$244.9
Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$71
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+110.8%+$251.54
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+75.4%+$8.6
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$99.56
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,650Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,649.93
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25.5
Showing 25 of 57 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT5244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 52 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.4
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will James Murray be in the Burnham cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Darren Jones be in the Burnham cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Ed Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$403Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+89.9%+$362.32
Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.24
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$4,895Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,895.41
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.7
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,418Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,418.37
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10,132Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+44.3%+$4,485.55
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,557Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,556.51
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$291.76
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$552Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$248
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$17,477Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$5,361.96
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$130
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$823Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$822.55
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$616Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$615.79
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$471Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+65.5%+$308.44
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.22
Labour leadership election scheduled by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+70.9%+$78.8
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$41
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+426.3%+$110.97
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,099Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+42.4%+$466.24
Showing 25 of 52 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT2060%12 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+36.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+150%+$72
Will Waymo launch in London by June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$53
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$69
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$512Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+32.9%+$168.53
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,016Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+29.5%+$300.04
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+233.3%+$70
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+312.1%+$470.59
GPT ads by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+72.7%+$36.17
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$255.6
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$65.88
Will Sydney Sweeney be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$36
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$200.5
Grokipedia released by October 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$14
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$546Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$546.34
Will Sam Altman say "Browser" during TBPN appearance on October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$37
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$24
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$464Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT+74.7%+$346.81
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT+214%+$73.81
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+230.8%+$257.87
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$269.35
All 20 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2026, EDT2040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.02
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.85
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.6
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.5
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$81.5
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.33
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$760Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$759.6
Will Donald Trump endorse John Cornyn for the Texas Republican Senate primary by March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$59.41
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+28%+$57.33
Will no Senate vote on an Epstein disclosure bill occur by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+102%+$101
Will Mitch McConnell vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+53.8%+$20.5
Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$371Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+186.2%+$691.51
Will EJ Antoni be confirmed as BLS Commissioner in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT+237.1%+$105.5
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+43.3%+$60.4
Lori Chavez-DeRemer confirmed as Labor Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.83
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$91.25
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$35.1
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$308.24
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST+34.5%+$69.05
All 20 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$284.46
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$12.6
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$299.32
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,475Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$2,475.11
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$405Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+74.4%+$301.43
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$74
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+488.2%+$83
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$35
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$26.15
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$479Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+112.7%+$540.17
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$21
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$430Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$430.27
Maduro out by November 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$40.9
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+33.3%+$25
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$30.56
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.8
All 17 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$74
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$14.85
Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$31.8
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$91.32
Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$31
Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+166%+$96.1
Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$92.3
Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+28.2%+$22
Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+140.7%+$674.81
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.5
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT+334.8%+$38.5
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.2
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.42
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Will U.S. GDP growth be less than -2% in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$289Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$81.4
Will the US add between 50-100k jobs in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.2
All 16 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 26-1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$57
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+40.8%+$58
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$92.5
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$101.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$140
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 1-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+92.6%+$243.76
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$422Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+101.4%+$428
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+72.4%+$210
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$195.25
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$154
All 11 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$366.6
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$34
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+150%+$17
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$3
New Trump executive order to restrict voting by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.51
Will Vanke default on debt by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Mexico tariffs on China in effect before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.04
TikTok sale announced before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$576Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$309.89
All 9 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST60%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+48.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,653Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,653.23
Will England win on 2026-07-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+183.7%+$183.69
Erling Haaland: 1+ shotsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 3 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+194.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA say "Trump" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$87.34
Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+488.2%+$166
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 25, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.