Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6770972b8d072a4064980d7105180ed7977361c47570529fd582e6dd3041277
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 0c | 8,574$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 6c | 7,047$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.13 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x110e…8b11backed No | 77c | 6,566$5,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,078.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 9c | 4,266$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked No | 2c | 4,190$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 14c | 3,796$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.09 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcf…03a0backed No | 64c | 3,310$2,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,118.28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 26c | 3,073$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,273.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 5c | 2,630$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.58 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f87…303fbacked No | 8c | 2,202$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 16c | 2,056$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,717.32 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…03c2backed No | 10c | 2,042$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 9c | 1,895$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.89 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 79c | 1,543$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.33 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7780…763ebacked No | 8c | 1,459$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 22c | 1,389$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 5c | 1,343$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 18c | 1,205$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.65 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,203$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.02 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 2c | 1,177$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…62b2backed No | 8c | 1,171$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 1,154$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 12c | 1,099$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 73c | 1,000$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…3251backed No | 5c | 994.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ac…bd73backed No | 2c | 975.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 17c | 900$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca0…8c4cbacked No | 2c | 887.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 18c | 777$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.18 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 19c | 721.72$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.18 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 26c | 674$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.29 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 66c | 643.36$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.16 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed Yes | 43c | 525.39$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +168.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 45c | 500.82$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.22 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 16c | 495.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed Yes | 78c | 403.11$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…b608backed Yes | 22c | 399.05$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +357.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 21c | 321.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 46c | 306.1$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.78 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f1bbbacked Yes | 69c | 283.9$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb87…f12fbacked No | 7c | 283.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…428abacked No | 35c | 282.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 18c | 278.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 27c | 273.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +135%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Yes | 19c | 251.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 30c | 243.65$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.3 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked Yes | 32c | 240$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 33c | 227.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…f8a2backed No | 33c | 227$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 18c | 215.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.46 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…4f2dbacked Yes | 17c | 200.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked No | 74c | 200$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…8a5abacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 33c | 200$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cc…779dbacked No | 69c | 200$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 23c | 196.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 33c | 187$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 67c | 187$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 22c | 161.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.7 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed No | 7c | 158.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed No | 18c | 151.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…1b73backed No | 7c | 145.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 19c | 114.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.04 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 113.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdab1…d307backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 16c | 96.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed No | 67c | 94.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7639…cbddbacked No | 69c | 92.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…3fc2backed No | 20c | 89.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 18c | 78.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8c…47c0backed No | 19c | 78.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d74…3163backed No | 66c | 76.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…98cabacked No | 13c | 74.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa014…ce91backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 38c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 21c | 61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…e046backed No | 37c | 54.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…58e9backed Yes | 19c | 53.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +200.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 22c | 51.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed No | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c51…aa25backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 41c | 44.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 38c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +59%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 78c | 41.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e0…e0f4backed No | 71c | 40.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…4bb2backed No | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 55c | 37.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec5…4deabacked No | 60c | 37.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed No | 78c | 34.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 78c | 32.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34de…2e2fbacked Yes | 78c | 23.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 74c | 22.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…da99backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?this page
- Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.