Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef9770b14a65cfec94b31ae8de283449770cc6fa223a96847a2d06f244448eed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9488…d531backed No | 25c | 4,066$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 77c | 3,983$3,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.79 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked No | 1c | 2,188$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca0…8c4cbacked No | 1c | 1,639$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 69c | 1,566$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.98 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 17c | 1,403$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.19 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc229…1d67backed No | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,184$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c9…e4b3backed No | 2c | 1,001$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 14c | 857.69$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.09 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 30c | 558$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.4 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 6c | 504$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 482.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 25c | 400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 28c | 334.83$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x755b…5945backed Yes | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 58c | 78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 42c | 78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c17…6a7ebacked Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Yes | 50c | 71.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…820abacked No | 50c | 60.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…1efbbacked Yes | 73c | 52.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 55c | 43.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +59%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed Yes | 62c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…13afbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab1…d307backed Yes | 59c | 38.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…58e9backed Yes | 75c | 34.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +200.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…f6ffbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd607…4b09backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…759cbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46b…8089backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by June 30?this page
- Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.