TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xce60…6705

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
196
Categories scored
27
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: IPO, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category IPO at 61 out of 100; worst World Politics at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT4837.5%18 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 48 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+26%+$39.5
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$10
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.57
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.55
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$477Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+25.9%+$123.63
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.32
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+29.4%+$6.59
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.51
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+100.5%+$150.4
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.8
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+29.5%+$63.09
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+68.4%+$121.82
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$65.79
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$34.27
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+110.3%+$40.03
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$89.2
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$78.36
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+566.7%+$85
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $500b on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41.62
Will Apple release AirTag 2 this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$32.1
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+66%+$106.01
Showing 25 of 48 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT3036.7%11 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.9
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$28
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$210.55
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.01
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$266Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$93.6
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$251.26
Will SPD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+85.9%+$18.17
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.1
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$161.05
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$11.43
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$43.99
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+26.6%+$8.4
Will Luís Marques Mendes win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$14.8
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$53.12
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$30.4
Will PVV win 33 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+28.2%+$6.6
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$30.21
Will the Democrats 66 win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+46.6%+$37.84
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+69.6%+$12.4
Nothing Ever Happens: France Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$74.15
Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT+43.4%+$5.39
Will George Simion win by 6–12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will George Simion win by 0–6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+194.1%+$239.03
Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24.37
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+136.2%+$69.2
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$292Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+292.2%+$853.63
Will fewer than 55 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+117.4%+$16.2
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Next Mayor" during his victory/concession speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+110.5%+$21
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Fascism" or "Fascist" during his victory/concession speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+41.5%+$115.85
Will Cuomo endorse Eric Adams?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+72.9%+$12.1
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will The New York Times have its Pentagon press pass revoked by December 31 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+68.3%+$72.33
Will The Associated Press have its Pentagon press pass revoked by December 31 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.63
Will The Washington Post have its Pentagon press pass revoked by December 31 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+30.8%+$11.77
Will Trump say "Aussie" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$3.3
Will Trump say "Rose Garden" during ballroom dinner on October 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$48
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.61
Trump approval Up or Down this week?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.8
Will TikTok be banned again before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$3
All 19 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
France vs. England: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$193.8
Lamine Yamal: 2+ shotsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$82.99
Lamine Yamal: 5+ shotsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6.95
France vs. Spain: France O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
France vs. Spain: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$19.74
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$460.4
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$468Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$132
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.08
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+27.2%+$3.4
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$14
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.4
All 15 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick42cpaid+46.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Commodities — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.49
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+115.8%+$115.35
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$78.4
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$162.1
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+190%+$20.93
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+36.1%+$10.6
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+136.5%+$28.85
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+41.5%+$89.8
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.65
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?backed Gold · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+161.9%+$65.68
All 13 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+44.1%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
IPO — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $900M and $1.1B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.62
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$28
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+93.3%+$136.02
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$802Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+43.8%+$351.38
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+301.2%+$168.83
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $16B and $19B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.84
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $19B and $22B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.6
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+69.4%+$124.86
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+190.6%+$59.65
Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$49
Will SpaceX file for an IPO by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$49
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+132.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.58
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$17.5
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+38.5%+$88.05
1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+71.5%+$24.19
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+400%+$80
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+270.4%+$292
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+425%+$460.59
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
All 8 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
The Bondi Parlay (Feb 20)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$21.45
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $190 before 2026??backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$61.45
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hoffenheim finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+111.9%+$211.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Paddy Pimblett Staph Infection by Feb. 1st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+66.7%+$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$40.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Diamondbacks vs. Rockiesbacked Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on April 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Uber say "Safety" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$13.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.