IPO · resolved market
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82abe485449a94256306ad540d037a93bac0219700c7c5d6438f752dcd62508b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 13c | 1,019$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.64 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 5c | 320.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 299.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6b…8189backed No | 74c | 215.02$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 7c | 155.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd54…597dbacked No | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 13c | 106.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…7b4dbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed No | 34c | 90.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 45c | 90.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 43c | 89.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked No | 41c | 86.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 28c | 71.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 72c | 70.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e6…a59dbacked No | 53c | 68.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3a…3047backed Yes | 40c | 66.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 26c | 53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…6901backed Yes | 68c | 48.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 48.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 38c | 45.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…491dbacked No | 73c | 41.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…9b38backed No | 74c | 40.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1485…4478backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…bddebacked Yes | 71c | 30.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed Yes | 53c | 30.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 53c | 20.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…9cd5backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…6754backed No | 73c | 19.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed06…2a2cbacked No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?this page
- Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 22, 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 26, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.