TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7365…64da

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
408
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: China Taiwan, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category China Taiwan at 60 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AIlast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT27536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 275 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+138.2%+$118.1
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$196.44
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$313Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+189.9%+$593.44
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+105.5%+$46.09
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,132Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+40.4%+$861.11
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$194.49
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.32
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.79
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$530Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$529.9
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,265Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,264.66
Will Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.94
Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.16
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$900
Moonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.47
Will any other model be the best AI model on July 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.85
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.54
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$3,583Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+37.1%+$1,330
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.08
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$623Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$622.69
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.89
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,686Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,686.46
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,712Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,712.4
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.98
Showing 25 of 275 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4934.7%17 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+11%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$144
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$408Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$192
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$684Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+207%+$1,415.98
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$10,613Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+36.5%+$3,877.01
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$611Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$249.4
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+176.5%+$1,941.09
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.81
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$3,721Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,720.61
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,398Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,398.07
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$264
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.21
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$393.95
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$217.2
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$22.5
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.27
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$521Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$521.4
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$585Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$584.65
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$192
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$173.99
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+1,385.1%+$1,399
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$190.53
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.41
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$695.74
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$486Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$486.05
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT2352.2%12 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.19per pick33cpaid+10.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,920Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$573.07
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,518Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+37.2%+$564.95
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.18
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.05
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.57
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.05
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$454Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$453.6
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+158.4%+$760.41
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+263.6%+$434.99
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.75
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.45
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$923Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+62.3%+$574.75
Will DeepSeek V4 not be released by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,943Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+82.1%+$1,595.27
DeepSeek V4 released by April 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+55.1%+$114.63
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,741Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$462.93
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.54
DeepSeek V4 released by April 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,063Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+59.8%+$635.5
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,152Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+165.3%+$1,904.1
DeepSeek V4 released by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.83
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$599Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+234.6%+$1,405.63
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.21
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$529Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+168.9%+$892.82
All 23 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.87
Will Jersey Mike's Subs' market cap be between $6.5B and $8B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+133.6%+$228.95
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.92
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.17
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.8
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+64.4%+$36.32
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.91
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$452Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+26.8%+$121.19
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$645Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+139.8%+$901.37
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.63
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.21
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.4
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$212.19
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$128.64
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $80B and $90B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.92
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.22
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$361.57
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.98
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $90B and $100B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.4
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$183.68
All 21 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT1637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+43.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$456Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$456
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+1,150%+$920
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$724Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$724.25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.39
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,173Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+27.8%+$326.48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$343Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+89%+$305.56
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.83
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,405Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+53%+$744.64
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+322.5%+$687
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,362Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+51.1%+$695.68
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$823Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$822.87
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$376.58
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$810Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$810.39
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.35
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$449.61
All 16 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-75.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+102.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+39.2%+$13.07
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+166.6%+$23.12
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+116.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.4
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+332.9%+$769
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+27.9%+$21.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA reach $208 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$259
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$41
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.