Middle East · resolved market
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71c49500d051a9b32b9aa5bc22e0a6925a8b2282840c3e62e0a3afcd0403ba03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,265,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,038,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,265,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 520 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 9c | 128,318$10,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,907.1 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 12c | 59,137$7,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,065.59 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 30c | 52,211$15,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,528.38 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 12c | 49,666$5,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,920.04 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4def…f8e8backed Yes | 2c | 47,972$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.34 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 1c | 44,950$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.6 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 13c | 33,113$4,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,196.34 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…1d08backed Yes | 1c | 30,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +795.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 19c | 29,351$5,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,612.31 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 28c | 28,974$8,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,074.82 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 15c | 28,873$4,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,209.26 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 15c | 28,803$4,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,203.43 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4568…d9f6backed Yes | 8c | 27,438$2,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,060.69 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 10c | 26,237$2,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,523.66 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed Yes | 20c | 24,300$4,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,814 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe823…2a61backed Yes | 25c | 21,524$5,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,340 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 8c | 20,863$1,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,583.16 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 26c | 20,658$5,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,452.9 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 20c | 19,576$3,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,862.16 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 32c | 17,870$5,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,763.95 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 12c | 17,528$2,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,018.07 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 3c | 17,035$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.52 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 10c | 17,028$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,642.49 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…caaabacked No | 76c | 15,278$11,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,691.65 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +6.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…a202backed Yes | 39c | 15,270$5,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,911.22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 6c | 15,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 20c | 15,000$2,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,927.94 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 4c | 14,903$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.67 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked Yes | 21c | 14,156$2,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,956.07 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 17c | 13,754$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.55 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 7c | 13,625$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.4 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…1feabacked Yes | 35c | 13,413$4,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,696 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…e17ebacked Yes | 26c | 13,392$3,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,536.06 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 7c | 13,160$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.23 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 15c | 12,752$1,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,946.38 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 16c | 12,591$2,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,067.54 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…fcddbacked Yes | 7c | 12,500$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 20c | 11,309$2,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,303.18 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 6c | 11,292$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.41 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e17…9d3cbacked No | 74c | 10,794$7,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,805.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 11c | 10,775$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.6 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 21c | 8,929$1,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,881.37 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes | 6c | 8,776$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…386ebacked Yes | 9c | 8,746$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.05 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 22c | 8,665$1,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.43 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 13c | 8,646$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.32 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 9c | 8,500$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.5 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 75c | 7,654$5,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,914.97 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…1083backed Yes | 6c | 7,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 26c | 7,136$1,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,831.24 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 64c | 7,120$4,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,548.99 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 20c | 6,886$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.25 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 1c | 6,678$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…3239backed Yes | 21c | 6,516$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.03 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 5c | 6,243$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.13 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 20c | 6,125$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.17 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eac…140abacked Yes | 14c | 6,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b30…2359backed No | 63c | 6,000$3,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,219.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 16c | 6,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 28c | 5,968$1,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660.82 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5b…26e2backed Yes | 11c | 5,959$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.99 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 9c | 5,955$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.22 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes | 21c | 5,917$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 22c | 5,900$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.52 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…f1bdbacked Yes | 10c | 5,841$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 26c | 5,822$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.62 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaa…c521backed Yes | 35c | 5,796$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +269.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed Yes | 7c | 5,566$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.13 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…0b82backed No | 70c | 5,500$3,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,674.99 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd6…60c2backed Yes | 13c | 5,349$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.22 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 12c | 5,265$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.27 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed Yes | 7c | 5,245$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.15 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 7c | 5,182$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.69 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…8d46backed Yes | 30c | 5,153$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550.05 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 10c | 5,100$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.98 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf77…7d01backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +434.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 19c | 5,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes | 18c | 4,876$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.86 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,781$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.71 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 16c | 4,536$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.1 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 67c | 4,523$3,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,484.38 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 8c | 4,300$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e3…c06fbacked Yes | 32c | 4,277$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 3c | 4,207$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.22 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 16c | 4,200$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.2 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 13c | 4,170$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…8edfbacked Yes | 6c | 4,030$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.33 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Yes | 8c | 4,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 25c | 4,000$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.4 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff8…5fd6backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 21cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16af…12a5backed Yes | 15c | 3,782$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.85 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…befbbacked Yes | 32c | 3,778$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc72…b99abacked Yes | 11c | 3,711$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.63 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +277.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 61c | 3,710$2,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.76 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 12c | 3,670$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.41 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…fcc9backed No | 78c | 3,615$2,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.98 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Yes | 2c | 3,575$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 11c | 3,575$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.04 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?this page
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.