Middle East · resolved market
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16608c4fdd7cb41292f6d42c1c02b43ac22593f1c198a104847a3479848d7abe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,774,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,794,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,774,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,006 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 66c | 136,255$90,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90,535.73 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 65c | 69,929$45,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,196.83 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 28c | 65,703$18,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,138.7 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 32c | 54,598$17,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,330.08 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 26c | 49,699$13,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,621.77 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 59c | 46,444$27,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,475.21 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 35c | 44,272$15,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,905.92 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 66c | 42,633$28,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,151.51 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 29c | 36,616$10,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,175.88 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 32c | 36,039$11,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,471.64 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 33,742$26,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,647.23 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 39c | 33,663$13,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,576.3 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…eb0bbacked No | 78c | 32,500$25,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,390.66 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes | 68c | 30,463$20,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,659.34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 43c | 29,410$12,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,693.15 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…64acbacked No | 71c | 29,127$20,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,655.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 21c | 28,500$6,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,422.99 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 27c | 27,984$7,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,488.93 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…907dbacked No | 79c | 26,219$20,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,590.95 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -8.4wins | -0.31per pick | 57cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 40c | 24,111$9,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,529.03 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafd9…9c1bbacked No | 41c | 24,000$9,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,770 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…3d59backed Yes | 59c | 23,562$13,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,572.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 74c | 22,111$16,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,314.32 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 25c | 21,763$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,362.79 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Yes | 9c | 21,664$1,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,820.9 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 19c | 21,116$3,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,195.11 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ff…79dcbacked Yes | 38c | 20,979$7,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,998.22 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 21c | 20,488$4,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,088.73 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked Yes | 26c | 18,149$4,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,519.52 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed No | 54c | 17,300$9,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,420.08 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes | 26c | 15,927$4,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,747.25 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 37c | 15,754$5,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,979.27 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 13c | 15,031$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,120.27 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 13c | 14,880$1,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,917.29 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 28c | 14,417$4,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,342.42 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 44c | 14,158$6,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,861.59 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed No | 66c | 13,759$9,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,033.93 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -9.9wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed No | 73c | 13,563$9,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,846.24 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf192…6ee2backed Yes | 42c | 13,016$5,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,561.49 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…f2d9backed Yes | 17c | 12,912$2,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,737.53 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 12,820$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,469.78 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…d004backed Yes | 38c | 11,780$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,280.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 25cpaid | +231.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 38c | 11,530$4,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,121.95 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…dea6backed Yes | 53c | 10,847$5,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,081.53 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 55c | 10,586$5,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,845.52 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 46c | 10,559$4,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,741.61 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 10,503$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,162.94 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6000…f302backed No | 67c | 10,356$6,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,892.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 78c | 10,339$8,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,024.54 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea7…bcd9backed No | 47c | 10,270$4,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,827.57 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 39c | 10,244$3,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,266.61 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 21c | 10,050$2,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,924.56 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes | 14c | 10,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,600 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 58c | 9,845$5,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,092.86 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa771…42d1backed Yes | 26c | 9,467$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,966.7 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 23c | 9,183$2,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,064.68 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 4c | 9,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,619.98 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…8f75backed No | 78c | 8,932$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 76c | 8,823$6,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,688.69 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 38c | 8,640$3,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,332.19 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 50c | 8,432$4,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,257.73 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 24c | 8,416$2,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,357.86 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 21c | 8,407$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,649.35 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 29c | 8,058$2,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,728.18 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed Yes | 46c | 7,831$3,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,196.19 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Yes | 47c | 7,825$3,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,116.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 37cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 15c | 7,611$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,496.89 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 23c | 7,469$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,726.51 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 56c | 7,120$3,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,973.41 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 16c | 7,006$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,879.69 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 37c | 6,969$2,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,400.25 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…3d56backed Yes | 26c | 6,894$1,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,113.87 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +244.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…85ecbacked Yes | 40c | 6,889$2,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,152.59 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +9.7wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +186.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 30c | 6,791$2,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,736.4 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 56c | 6,788$3,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,785.05 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 34c | 6,668$2,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,419.58 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 44c | 6,596$2,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,697.91 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 57c | 6,481$3,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,677.01 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd6…60c2backed Yes | 29c | 6,415$1,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,566.37 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 72c | 6,368$4,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800.03 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…644fbacked No | 78c | 6,331$4,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,970 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 58c | 6,216$3,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,585.28 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 24c | 6,211$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,691.49 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 54c | 6,147$3,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,848.21 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 27c | 6,066$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,449.44 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…4c09backed Yes | 40c | 6,052$2,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,632.37 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.51per pick | 38cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 71c | 6,000$4,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,260 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 38c | 5,833$2,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,644.67 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 14c | 5,673$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,854.17 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 54c | 5,571$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,571.32 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 65c | 5,501$3,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,599.06 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6d…bec8backed Yes | 20c | 5,438$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,345.11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.49per pick | 18cpaid | +227.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…5d15backed No | 62c | 5,421$3,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,355.09 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed Yes | 9c | 5,352$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,891.03 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…ec26backed Yes | 40c | 5,245$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,165.85 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +5.4wins | +0.42per pick | 43cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 27c | 5,046$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,666.28 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 35c | 5,000$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,250 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed Yes | 29c | 5,000$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,550 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 24c | 5,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked No | 76c | 4,934$3,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,733.83 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -11.4wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?this page
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.